The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March has decreased to 89%.

On March 4th, Analyst Adam Button stated that the present trade environment is difficult and setting interest rate policy is also very challenging. Up to now, there haven't been a great many signs indicating an increase in dovishness from the Federal Reserve. However, yesterday, St. Louis Fed President Bullard emphasized some downside risks facing the economy, which opened the door for the Fed. In addition, each Fed official has made similar "wait-and-see" statements, emphasizing that they are only willing to cut rates after seeing a 2% inflation rate. The market did not wait for a stronger signal. Instead, it increased its expectations for Fed easing from 40 basis points a few weeks ago to 80 basis points this year. The upcoming March meeting still shows a very low possibility of a rate cut, but the probability of a rate cut at the May meeting has now exceeded 50%. At the more distant end of the curve, terminal rates have dropped by approximately 50 basis points. (FXStreet)

On March 4th, the S&P 500 index wiped out its post-election gains, erasing $3.4 trillion in market value. (FX168)

On March 4th, Derek Holt, an economist at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, stated that thus far, the sell-off in the financial market triggered by U.S. President Trump's imposition of a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico has been relatively moderate. The reasons encompass that traders have already assimilated the tariff risk. At least, Canada's retaliatory response is less than what the U.S. has implemented. Additionally, it remains uncertain how long Trump will sustain the tariff. Holt believes that Trump imposed the tariff prior to his speech to Congress members on Tuesday evening in order to demonstrate progress on the trade front. He further added that given Trump's keen attention to the stock market performance, traders might think that a decline in risk appetite could prompt Trump to alter his stance. (FX678)

On March 4th, based on HTX market data, SOL experienced a rebound and broke through $140. The 24-hour price decline narrowed to 12.30%.

On March 4th, when the U.S. stock market opened, all three major stock indexes declined. The Dow dropped by 0.66%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.76%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.99%. Tesla (TSLA.O) saw a 4.3% decline. This was because Bank of America had previously significantly reduced its target price from $490 to $380. Nvidia (NVDA.O) continued its decline from the previous day and opened down by 2.2%. Regarding cryptocurrency-related stocks, Coinbase fell by 1.51% and Strategy fell by 4.27%.

On March 4th, according to HTX market data, Bitcoin experienced a rebound and surpassed $84,000. The 24-hour price decline narrowed to 8.38%.