CITIC Securities: DeepSeek V4 and Multiple Model Updates, Continued Strain on Computing Power

April 27th: Onchain Lens monitoring shows a whale dormant for three years transferred 2,301 ETH to Kraken, with the holding valued at approximately $5.5 million.

On April 27th, Bitcoin briefly fell below $78,000, per HTX market data, and is currently trading at $77,997.33—down 1.25% over the past hour.

On April 27th, Chloe—columnist at HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research—pointed out that the crypto market’s current macro framework has shifted: from “waiting for rate cuts to drive liquidity trading” to a constrained environment marked by “higher rates for longer, sticky inflation, and war impacts.” A recent Reuters survey shows most economists have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to after September, with nearly a third seeing no cuts at all this year. The main driver? Rising energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict have pushed inflation higher, curbing the Fed’s room to maneuver. This shift has directly eroded the two key pillars that previously supported crypto assets: expectations for looser liquidity and a path of falling interest rates. High oil prices, paired with steadily rising PCE inflation expectations, have raised the odds that rates will stay high—or even rise further—boosting discount rates and simultaneously shrinking risk budgets. As a r

As of April 27th, CryptoQuant data shows BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF IBIT posted a net inflow of $983 million over the past week—its highest level in nearly six months. Bitcoin has rallied strongly recently, fueled by inflows into IBIT and other spot ETFs, with a nearly 18% cumulative gain in April.

April 27th — Per HyperInsight monitoring (Telegram: @HyperInsight), INTC contract prices on Hyperliquid rose ~3% this morning, following Intel’s 23.6% surge last Friday. The contract briefly hit $85 and is now trading at $84.7. On-chain trader “CBB” (X: @Cbb0fe) ramped up their INTC short positions over the weekend. Current details: $3.15M position size, $77.3 average entry price, $270K unrealized loss (-23.5%). They now hold the largest INTC short on Hyperliquid. Additionally, this address is shorting over 20 U.S. stock targets with a total position size of ~$27.8M. Amid recent U.S. stock gains, the address has withdrawn $7.2M in funds this month. Address: 0xd8d5b0f7219aed171efb5ae2ac3b9941206f7349

April 27 — HyperInsight monitoring reports that during last night’s and this morning’s market surge, Bitcoin (BTC) once again broke its recent high. The largest short position on Hyperliquid, held by the address “pension-usdt.eth,” took the biggest hit of the rally, posting a $2.7 million daily loss. Combined, the account’s two positions now face an unrealized loss of over $16 million. Details below: - 3x BTC Short: 1,000 coins (valued at ~$78.9M) opened at an average price of $67,992; unrealized loss: $11M (-42%) - 3x ETH Short: 20,000 coins (valued at ~$47.65M) opened at an average price of $2,131; unrealized loss: $5M (-32%) The account’s margin is now depleted, with the BTC short’s liquidation price set at $99,119. The address has not reduced its position since opening it. Over the past month, the account has shed $16.2M, cutting its overall profit to $14.4M. Address: 0x0ddf9bae2af4b874b96d287a5ad42eb47138a902