During the US-Iran conflict, Polymarket's trading volume surged, with over $100 million in related transactions on January 4th.

April 23rd — Prediction markets saw a surge in trading volume amid heightened uncertainty over Trump’s Iran policy and social media posts, per *Fortune*. Dune data shows 4.13 billion Iran war-related trades between April 5 (Sunday) and April 8 (the day after Trump announced a ceasefire), totaling over $1 billion. On April 8, Polymarket recorded more than 100,000 trades on the event “Will Trump likely deploy troops to Iran?” — marking the year’s highest daily volume at the time. Earlier triggers: After Trump posted on Truth Social April 5 demanding Iran “open that damn strait,” trading spiked on Polymarket for the event tracking invasion likelihood. Then, following his April 7 insinuation that “tonight will see the end of an entire civilization,” the “Will there be a ceasefire?” event overtook it as the top-traded topic. Dune dubbed Trump an “unpredictable machine,” noting his “Twitter governance” style drove volume. Bipartisan criticism over alleged insider trading has dogged prediction markets, but Trump has backed the sector: He’s taken a light-touch regulatory approach to fuel expansion. Trump Jr. ties: Donald Trump Jr. — the former president’s eldest son — holds Polymarket shares and advises Kalshi. Polymarket now values at $9.6 billion, nearly 10x its valuation in the latest funding round Don Jr. joined via his venture capital fund 8 months ago. The Trump Organization plans to launch its own prediction market, Truth Predict. Response: Don Jr. spokesperson Andrew Surabian said his client’s investor/advisor roles have no federal government contact and no influence on U.S. policy toward prediction markets. Polymarket did not respond to media requests. Latest odds: As of Tuesday, Polymarket’s probability for “Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?” has jumped from 13% at year’s start to 66%.