Analysis: Quantum Risk Could Affect $145 Billion in BTC, Significant Selling Pressure But Market Resilient and Not Catastrophic

April 23rd (CoinDesk) — Bitcoin analyst James Check noted that recent quantum computing advances have sparked fresh concerns about Bitcoin. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve signatures, exposing public keys—especially for wallets from Bitcoin’s early Satoshi era. However, market data suggests even a worst-case selloff would be significant but manageable, not catastrophic. An estimated 1.7 million BTC sits in vulnerable Satoshi-era addresses, translating to ~$145 billion in potential sell pressure at current prices. But data tells a different story: - Long-term holders (155+ days) typically offload 10,000–30,000 BTC daily during bull markets; the full Satoshi-era supply would take just 2–3 months to liquidate at that pace. - During the recent bear market, over 2.3 million BTC changed hands in one quarter—more than the quantum “target supply”—without a systemic market collapse. - Monthly exchange inflows near 850,000 BTC, and derivatives market nominal volume equals the entire Satoshi reserve every few days. Check added that sudden, concentrated releases could still trigger volatility and a prolonged downturn—but that scenario assumes irrational behavior. Any entity holding these assets has an incentive to sell gradually, possibly hedging via derivatives to cut slippage and maximize returns. He emphasized the real issue isn’t mechanical sell pressure, but governance: whether to freeze Satoshi’s coins via BIP-361 and let the situation unfold naturally.