Analyst: Coexistence of High Hodling and Continuous Negative Fee Rate Indicates Increasing Market Complexity

On April 23, analyst @Murphychen888 noted in a social media post that on-chain data shows Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest (OI) has rebounded to a recent high of ~472,000 BTC—signaling renewed leverage accumulation in the market. At the same time, shorts continue to dominate active trading, keeping perpetual contracts in a prolonged spot discount. During yesterday’s peak hours, shorts paid an average hourly funding rate of over $600,000—far above the 7-day average of $197,000—sharply raising their position-holding costs. The analysis highlights that high OI combined with persistent negative funding rates could spark a short squeeze during a market rebound, acting as fuel for upward price momentum. Historical data shows two phase rebounds followed the 7-day average long/short ratio turning negative on March 9 and April 13. Unlike the rapid retracement from the $97,000 resistance level in January, the current market structure points to a more complex short-term outlook. Shorts now face sustained funding cost pressure, while longs have yet to establish a clear trend. Overall, while a high funding rate doesn’t guarantee a short squeeze, the mix of high OI and cost pressure has eroded the clear advantage of chasing shorts. The market is currently operating in a rhythm of “event-driven moves → liquidation squeezes → return to range-bound trading.”