Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire Expectations Lower Hedging Premium, but Sanctions and Shipping Restrictions Simultaneously Expand, Market Enters Mismatched Phase of "Surface Easing, Internal Contraction"

On April 17, markets shifted to repricing the "form of war" instead of the "existence of war." U.S.-Iran talks moved from a comprehensive deal to a temporary framework, with more ceasefire signals—apparently cutting the tail risk of extreme supply disruptions. This directly reduced demand for the safe-haven USD and boosted risk asset flows. But the U.S. also expanded shipping and energy-related sanctions on Iran—covering crude oil, refined products, and industrial metals—meaning supply-side constraints haven’t been lifted, just become more structural. This "expected easing vs. actual tightening" mismatch is distorting market pricing. Energy markets haven’t seen meaningful loosening, but the USD weakened as risk appetite picked up—creating a classic asset misalignment: safe havens are pricing in an optimistic scenario early, while commodities still reflect constrained supply. That’s why Wall Street is uniformly turning bearish on the USD. The shift isn’t about deteriorating fundamentals, but funds rebalancing from wartime positions back into risk assets. Deeper shifts are hitting policy and fund structures. The Fed still holds a wait-and-see (or even slightly hawkish) stance internally, but market pricing for full-year rate cuts has collapsed—meaning rate expectations haven’t truly shifted toward easing. Meanwhile, the former Treasury Secretary’s warning about U.S. bond demand risks, plus long-term rates staying high, signals global funds’ trust in "risk-free assets" is fading. That’ll further erode the USD’s structural support, making it more vulnerable to swings in risk sentiment. Turning to crypto: BTC is in a classic liquidity redistribution phase now. It’s tested the supply zone above $75k multiple times but can’t hold above it sustainably. High liquidations and trapped longs persist around the $76k level. But a clear liquidity floor has formed between $72k-$73k—showing funds haven’t exited, just shifted to high-frequency reallocation in this range. Looking at liquidation heatmaps, the market is building a new point of control, not extending a one-sided trend. Overall, markets have shifted from "event-driven" to "structurally misaligned-driven." Short-term price swings will depend more on how funds flow between safe havens, energy commodities, and risk assets—than on any single macro event. The real key right now isn’t whether the conflict ends, but when supply constraints and liquidity conditions realign.