Analyst: Bitcoin Funding Rate Hits New Low Since 2023, Potentially Triggering a Short Squeeze, BTC Could Rise to $125,000

CoinDesk reports that as of April 17, Bitcoin is currently trading at $74,700, down 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Risk sentiment got a boost from news of U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks, with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high on Thursday. Former President Trump stated the prospect of a permanent U.S.-Iran ceasefire “looks very optimistic,” claiming Iran has agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz—though Iran has not confirmed these concessions. Meanwhile, markets are closely tracking structural signals behind Bitcoin’s price moves. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria noted: “The extremely negative funding rate signals the market is heavily short. If Bitcoin continues to rise in this environment, a wave of short positions could face forced liquidation, further accelerating price gains.” He predicted Bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days if the short base is squeezed out. On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt offered another perspective: Bitcoin’s “True Market Mean” (TMM) shows the average holding cost for active holders is now above current prices, leaving holders with unrealized losses. Since 2016, sustained drops below this mean have often coincided with Bitcoin’s most severe bear cycles—including the 2018-2019 bear market (57% maximum drawdown over 282 days) and the 2022-2023 downturn following the Luna and FTX collapses (56% maximum drawdown over 339 days). Analysts point out these two assessments are not mutually exclusive: the short squeeze from the deeply negative funding rate and structural pressure from active holders’ unrealized losses can coexist. The former may spark a sharp rally, but could ultimately be absorbed by selling from the latter. The future direction may hinge on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds beyond next week’s deadline.