Insight: Bitcoin Sees First-Year Decrease Post-Halving, 'Four-Year Cycle' Potentially Broken
**Bitcoin 2025 Annual Close: First Post-Halving Yearly Drop Sparks Four-Year Cycle Debate**
Bitcoin closed 2025 below its year-start price—marking the first time in history it has ended a year lower following a halving—sparking intense market debate over whether its "four-year cycle" has ended.
The latest halving occurred in April 2024. Prior to that, BTC hit an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, 2024, but has since seen a sharp pullback: it is currently down over 30% from that peak, resulting in a weak annual performance.
Analysts note that after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin reached new highs in the subsequent year—a pattern not repeated in the current cycle. Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, bluntly stated the 2024 post-halving year’s price decline signals the "official death of the four-year cycle."
Investor Armando Pantoja argues ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate balance sheet participation have shifted Bitcoin from retail sentiment-driven to
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Data: Sub-$400 Cost Basis ETH Ancient Whale Has Repeatedly Taken Profits, Subsequently Leading to Periodic Price Tops
On January 1st, on-chain data analyst Murphy released an article examining the activity of ETH “ancient whales”—holders with a cost basis under $400—throughout this cycle.
The average holding cost for ETH held 5–7 years currently stands at $378. Between 2024 and 2025, every time ETH prices broke above $4,000, large swaths of these ancient chips were cashed out for profits. For instance:
- March 2024: Daily realized profits from ETH held 5+ years reached $600 million.
- June 2024: A staggering $1 billion in daily profits was taken.
- September 2025: ETH held 7+ years posted daily profits exceeding $500 million.
- October 2025: ETH held 10+ years also saw daily profits over $500 million.
Notably, after ancient chips took profits, ETH consistently hit a staged peak.
On the supply front: Since May 2024, when ETH treasuries started heavy accumulation, the supply of ETH held 5+ years has gradually decreased. Yet, ancient whales with a cost basis below $400 still control 20.1
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Zhang Zhen Wei: The short-term controversy will eventually pass, focusing on the continued construction and long-term development of Neo
On January 1st, Erik Zhang—co-founder of NEO—published a post calling on the community to refocus on NEO’s core priorities: ongoing building and long-term growth.
He’s actively advancing Neo 4’s design and research to align with the project’s roadmap, while also driving ecosystem development, external partnerships, and prioritizing application adoption, real-world assets (RWA), stablecoins, and cross-chain interoperability. The goal is to turn protocol-level upgrades into practical use cases and sustainable growth.
Short-term controversies will fade, and Neo’s future hinges on consistent delivery, active collaboration, and real-world applications.
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Lummis: "Responsible Financial Innovation Act" Will Allow Big Banks to Provide Digital Asset Custody, Staking, and Payment Services
On January 1st, Cynthia Lummis—sponsor of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act and chair of the Senate Banking Committee’s Digital Assets Working Group—stated that the U.S. “Responsible Financial Innovation Act” will allow large banks to offer digital asset custody, staking, and payment services under appropriate regulatory oversight. She noted digital assets are a critical part of the U.S. financial system, and integrating them into the regulated banking framework will protect consumers and unlock growth potential.
Previously reported: after months of delays, the Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold a markup session on the bill during the second week of January. This marks a milestone breakthrough for the legislation, which had stalled amid Democratic lawmakers’ concerns over decentralized finance (DeFi) and the longest federal government shutdown in history.
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