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Viewpoint: BTC Faces Second Test of $75,400 Short-Term Holder Cost this Cycle, Further Retracement Likely

6 days ago

On April 16, on-chain analyst Murphy noted that the 1-3 month Short-Term Holder Cost (1-3m_RP) sits around $75,400—aligning with BTC’s current price. In this latest downtrend, BTC has rebounded near this resistance level for the second time. The last bounce around Jan 13-19 saw a minor breakout, followed by selling pressure and a further pullback. Per historical data from the past three cycles, no successful reversal has ever occurred after just the second attempt to test this resistance—making another pullback highly likely. Additionally, there’s another possible scenario: if BTC breaks above this level, it could hit a higher resistance zone—the Short-Term Holder Average Cost Line (STH-RP), currently around $81k. Some 2.31 million BTC are held at this level; if BTC faces resistance here following a rally, the market will need time to absorb selling pressure before cautiously deciding its next direction.
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