Trump: If Iran does not yield, the "Ace card" is a naval blockade
April 12: Trump posted on Truth Social, stating, “If Iran does not back down, President Trump’s ‘ace in the hole’ is a naval blockade.”
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Analyst: US-Iran Deal Failure Could See Bitcoin Fall to $65,000
April 12 – Per a Forbes report, U.S. Vice President Pence confirmed no agreement was reached after 21 hours of negotiations, citing Iran’s refusal to commit to abandoning its nuclear program. Trump had previously warned of “total destruction” for Iran if talks collapsed.
The Iran conflict has driven weeks of crypto market volatility, amplified by tariff unrest—Bitcoin dropped below $70k earlier this month. Ahead of talks, crypto analysts noted: Bitcoin could hit $80k if a deal is struck, or slide to $65k if negotiations break down.
On the bullish front: On-chain wallet data shows the largest Bitcoin whale has been steadily buying amid peak geopolitical tensions, not selling. The reasoning: Escalating conflict could disrupt Persian Gulf oil supplies, pushing oil prices higher, reigniting inflation, and prompting the Fed to delay rate cuts—scenarios where scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold typically outperform.
Bearish take: Gold trader and long-time Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schif
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Next Week Outlook: Geopolitical Risks Reignited as US-Iran Talks Fail to Reach Agreement, Federal Reserve Officials Speak Out
April 12 —
The Middle East situation worsened sharply over the weekend, following a brief ceasefire cooling-off period.
### Key Developments:
- **U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse**: 21-hour negotiations ended in deadlock after Iran rejected the U.S.-proposed “no nuclear weapons development” clause.
- **Ambiguous Dialogue End**: U.S. Vice President Vance announced the talks’ conclusion with vague wording.
- **Trump’s Attack Pause Nears End**: His declared two-week attack suspension is winding down with no clear outcome.
- **Hormuz Strait Dispute**: A U.S. destroyer claimed the first post-conflict transit of the Strait of Hormuz — a claim Iranian officials immediately denied, signaling ongoing information warfare.
### Market Outlook for Next Week:
Geopolitics will dominate sentiment; any Hormuz-related news could trigger asset price swings.
Beyond geopolitics, the macro calendar focuses on two critical themes:
1. **Fed Policy Signals**: Speeches by Fed officials (includin
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The current popular CEX and DEX funding rate displays show that BTC and ETH have been continuously in a bearish range.
On April 12, per HTX market data, Bitcoin is trading at $71,697.20—down 1.80% over the past 24 hours—while Ethereum sits at $2,219.54, a 1.27% drop in the same period. Coinglass data shows funding rates across major centralized (CEXs) and decentralized (DEXs) exchanges point to bearish signals for both BTC and ETH, with market sentiment remaining muted.
Specifically, Bitcoin’s funding rate is negative on platforms like Binance: shorts are continuously paying fees to longs to maintain their positions, indicating an overall bearish trend. For Ethereum, rates are negative on Binance, while platforms like OKX see positive rates but all fall below the 0.005% bearish threshold—also signaling a broad bearish trend. Funding rates for specific major coins are displayed in the attached chart.
BlockBeats Note: Funding rate is a mechanism set by crypto exchanges to align perpetual contract prices with the underlying asset’s spot price. It involves a fund transfer between long and short trade
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Iran Not in Rush to Resume Nuclear Talks with US
Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported on local time April 12 that Tehran is not rushing to negotiate with the U.S., citing informed sources.
Iran has put forward reasonable proposals in the talks, and now “the ball is in the U.S.’s court” — Washington should take a pragmatic approach to the issue, the agency said.
The source also noted the U.S. government “is making the same mistakes in negotiation decisions as it did in war decisions,” adding Iran is not eager for a quick deal. As long as the U.S. rejects a reasonable agreement, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will remain unchanged.
The timing and location of the next round of talks have yet to be determined.
(Source: CCTV International News)
12 minutes ago
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