PCE Outlook: Core Inflation Stubbornly Above Expectations, Fed May Stay Put for Third Consecutive Time

On April 9, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported that an Iranian military spokesperson expressed hope for a ceasefire agreement in ongoing negotiations, but noted that if talks fail, "we are also prepared for a long-term war." Iran’s proposed conditions will serve as the basis for the negotiations. (Xinhua International)

On April 9, HyperInsight Monitoring reported that Abraxas Capital—the largest crude oil short seller on the Hyperliquid platform—saw its balance surge by over $12 million in the week following a ceasefire announcement. The firm’s “short oil, long crypto” portfolio flipped from a prior $9.7 million loss to a profit. At press time, the two associated addresses continue to realize profits while paring positions simultaneously, with current unrealized gains totaling $8.7 million. Post this round of position trimming, total open positions still stand at $152 million: US/UK crude shorts total ~$126 million, while crypto longs amount to ~$26.1 million. Crude oil short details are below: - Brent Crude Short (5x leverage): Position trimmed from $92 million to $78 million; average entry price ~$103 - WTI Crude Short (5x leverage): Position reduced from $51 million to $48.5 million; average entry price ~$98.30 Addresses: 0x5b5d51203a0f9079f8aeb098a6523a13F298C060 0xb83de012dba67

April 9th — Per Emperor Osmo’s monitoring, the Avalanche team has cumulatively deposited ~$180M worth of AVAX to Coinbase over the past six months (since last September), representing 1.88% of AVAX’s circulating supply. Currently, 1.88% of AVAX’s circulating supply is valued at ~$73M at current market prices.

On April 9, on-chain detective ZachXBT revealed that U.S. Bitcoin ATM operator Bitcoin Depot (BTM) disclosed in an 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that a security incident occurred on March 23, resulting in the theft of approximately 50.9 BTC (worth roughly $3.6 million). However, further investigation traced the actual incident to March 20—meaning funds were moved three days before the company detected the breach. On-chain analysis identified 19 highly credible related addresses holding a total of around 54.45 BTC (about $3.7 million), which exceeds the company’s reported amount by roughly 3.55 BTC and may involve an employee’s personal account. Fund flows show approximately 54 BTC ultimately moved to cryptocurrency exchange KuCoin. As of now, these involved addresses have not been flagged by mainstream compliance monitoring tools.

April 9th — According to HyperInsight monitoring (via Telegram: https://t.me/HyperInsight), a whale has fully liquidated all long positions in WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil via stop-loss triggers. Prior to liquidation, the whale held over $14.1M in combined positions across the two crude oils, incurring a total loss of more than $3.9M. Immediately after closing these positions, the address opened a short position in WTI Crude Oil at an average price of $92.3. The current size of this short position is $9.3M, with a liquidation price of $117.6. As of now, the whale’s key position layout across three major markets is as follows: - **Stocks**: Long positions in Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, totaling $38.1M with an unrealized gain of $0.43M. - **Crypto**: Long position in BTC, size $12.05M (average price $6,540) with an unrealized gain of $0.03M. - **Commodities**: Short position in WTI Crude Oil, size $9.3M with an unrealized loss of $0.29M. Address: 0x8af700ba841f30e0a3fc

On April 9th, MLM Monitor reported that Continue Capital unlocked 603,000 HYPE tokens—valued at roughly $23.3 million—earlier this morning. Prior to this, a wallet tied to Continue Capital had unlocked a pledge and sold 320,000 HYPE tokens.