Vance: Iran's Ten-Point Plan Resembles AI Editing, Has Multiple Versions

**April 9 (Wall Street Journal) —** Iran is tightening de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz under the U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework, limiting daily vessel transit to roughly 12 while requiring advance coordination fees and transit permits. All vessels must first secure approval from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Data shows daily transit caps have dropped as low as 4 vessels since April—down from a pre-conflict daily average of over 100. Iran is pushing a tiered fee system: - Iranian cargo vessels: free transit - Friendly-country vessels: subject to fees - U.S./Israel-linked vessels: may face restrictions Industry sources note supertanker fees could reach up to $2 million. Long-term implementation would let Iran exert significant control over roughly 20% of global oil supplies. While the U.S. continues advocating for freedom of navigation in the strait, there are no signs Iran is easing restrictions. Analysts say this move has emerged as Iran’s

April 9 — Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres is calling on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate unusual trading activity in oil and stock futures markets shortly before former President Donald Trump delayed a military strike on Iran last month (March 23). “The speed, scale, and structure of the trades are all highly suspicious,” Torres said. “It’s patently clear the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) can’t turn a blind eye.” The Democratic lawmaker is urging regulators to launch a formal probe into trades in the minutes before Trump’s March 23 post (covering oil, energy, and stock futures markets) and to obtain trading records for accounts linked to those trades. (FX678)

April 9, Nick Timiraos—known as the "Fed’s megaphone"—noted that expectations for Fed rate cuts are fading fast, and shifts in the Middle East situation are no longer a key factor. The latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show that amid stable inflation and a robust labor market, the Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady in the 3.5%-3.75% range, signaling a more cautious policy approach. Most officials see that the effects of tariffs, energy price pass-through, and rising inflation expectations could slow the pace of inflation’s decline more than anticipated. The analysis notes that even a ceasefire may not prompt rate cuts. Conversely, reduced tensions could ease downside economic risks, draw more attention to inflation, and extend the period of elevated interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also warned that the Fed is currently grappling with multiple overlapping supply shocks, and there is a risk of unanchored inflation expectations. Some off

April 9th: Israeli media reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed opposition to striking an agreement with Iran during a conversation with Trump prior to the ceasefire announcement.

April 9 — On April 8 local time, the first day the U.S.-Iran ceasefire took effect, Israel launched its largest airstrike against Hezbollah since the current conflict began. Iran says the strike violates the ceasefire, adding it has closed the Strait of Hormuz again and is threatening deterrent action against Israeli military targets. The White House announced Tuesday (April 8) that the first round of U.S.-Iran talks will be held in Pakistan on Friday (April 11). But Iran argues three key provisions of the 10-point ceasefire terms have been breached, undermining the “basis for negotiations.”

April 9 — The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted over Israeli violations of the Lebanon ceasefire agreement.