Goldman Sachs Warns of Hormuz Strait Risk: Asia Faces Partial ‘Oil Crunch’ and Price Spike

April 6th: Goldman Sachs noted in its latest report that the Strait of Hormuz— a global energy transit lifeline— is facing pressure amid the Middle East conflict. The oil supply chain is under extreme stress, with risks of localized “oil shortages” rising. The impact is most pronounced in Asia, where multiple economies rely heavily on energy imports from the Persian Gulf. Some countries get around 50% of their fuel from the region, with South Korea and Singapore even more dependent on Middle East supplies. While a global supply disruption has not occurred yet, buffers from inventory draws, trade rerouting and export restrictions are thinning. Data shows Asia’s net oil imports fell sharply by late March, reflecting a rapid rise in supply pressure. By category, naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) face acute shortages amid tight inventories. Meanwhile, diesel and jet fuel prices continue to climb, with hoarding by market participants amplifying volatility. Some countries are showing signs of fuel rationing or supply disruptions, with India and Thailand already taking intervention steps. Goldman Sachs stressed that a structural global supply crunch has not emerged yet. However, should disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, local energy shortages and soaring oil prices will worsen— particularly hitting regions with high import dependence.