Opinion: U.S.-Iran Temporary Ceasefire Faces Multiple Harsh Realities

April 6 – Li Zixin, Assistant Researcher at the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), said Wednesday that while a U.S.-Iran temporary truce is not impossible, it is “extremely difficult” to achieve. Even if reached, it would likely be a temporary band-aid rather than a reliable path to a permanent ceasefire. First, the two sides’ core demands are hard to reconcile: - Iran views control of the Strait of Hormuz and its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium as key strategic bargaining chips, and has made clear it will not give up these fundamental interests for a short-term truce. - The U.S., meanwhile, demands Iran reopen the strait and address its nuclear materials—essentially asking Tehran for unilateral concessions and setting aside Iran’s core interests, which touches on Iran’s sovereignty and security red lines. Second, trust in talks is very weak: - Iran acknowledges exchanging information with the U.S. via friendly third countries but denies direct negotiations. - U.S. President Donald Trump has sent mixed signals: he’s floated negotiation offers on one hand but issued military strike ultimatums on the other. This “pressure + talks” approach is more about maximum pressure to test Tehran’s compromise limits than a genuine push for reconciliation. (Source: Jinse)