Analyst: Bitcoin Profit/Loss Supply Nears ‘Capitulation’ Levels

On April 3rd, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s current profit supply stands at roughly 11.2 million coins, while its loss supply is around 8.2 million—levels approaching typical bear market ranges. By comparison, at the 2022 bear market low, profit supply was 9 million coins and loss supply hit ~10.6 million. Darkfost argues this signals the market is entering a "significantly undervalued state," with a potential bottom near. However, Bitrue research director Andri Fauzan Adziima contends the data reflects "rising market pressure, not immediate undervaluation." A true bottom, he says, would require deeper losses: e.g., loss supply exceeding 50% of total circulating supply and profit supply dropping below 45%. Currently, Bitcoin is down ~52% from its all-time high—far less than the 77%-84% drawdowns seen in prior bear markets. Additionally, analyst Timothy Peterson points out that a stronger U.S. dollar (the U.S. Dollar Index has climbed ~5% in two months) and a weaker Chinese yuan have capped Bitcoin’s rebound. He expects the dollar’s appeal to fade only in the second half of 2026 or 2027.