U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds, Inflation Expectations Surge

March 31st: U.S. consumer confidence ticked up slightly in March, The Conference Board reported, rising 0.8 points to 91.8 from February’s 91.0. The Present Situation Index—tracking consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions—climbed 4.6 points to 123.3. By contrast, the Expectations Index fell 1.7 points to 70.9. Upward cost pressures from tariff pass-through and surging oil prices have emerged in other metrics, including inflation expectations. “Consumer confidence edged up again slightly in March, driven mostly by improved views of current conditions that offset a modest weakening in future expectations,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Three of five sub-indexes improved this month, marking the second straight modest gain in overall confidence. Still, the index has trended downward overall since 2021.” Data also shows that amid the oil price shock tied to the Iran conflict, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to their highest levels since August 2025. The net share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise over the next year jumped to 42.4% from 34.9%, per FXStreet.