「Leveraged Long" Position Liquidated Again, Cumulative Loss Reaches $31.3 Million

March 30: Per CBS News, two sources familiar with the matter said the White House has privately told allies a U.S.-Iran diplomatic deal will take time. The sources added the U.S. expects intense military action to last another 2 to 4 weeks. Separately, two sources close to Iranian officials stated Tehran believes diplomatic talks will take time, is skeptical of the U.S. reaching an agreement, and views high energy prices as favorable conditions for Iran. The same sources also expressed doubt about the U.S. and Israel’s shared timeline for ending the conflict. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) previously noted fighting is expected to continue until Passover (the first week of early April).

March 30 — Per The New York Times, with 2,500 Marine Corps troops and 2,500 additional Navy sailors now deployed, the U.S. has over 50,000 total troops in the Middle East, roughly 10,000 more than its typical presence. While it remains unclear what specific missions the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit’s troops will carry out, U.S. officials note that former President Trump is weighing whether to launch a larger offensive — including attempts to seize an island or other territory — as part of efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz.

March 30 (Sina News) — Memory prices have plunged sharply since last week, with the mainstream 16GB module seeing a single-day maximum drop of over 100 yuan. Wholesalers widely attribute the slump to mass selling by early hoarders. Excessive price hikes earlier had pushed market sales down by more than 60% from pre-November 2023 levels, and weak demand absorption has further intensified selling pressure. Separately, Google has rolled out a new compression algorithm called TurboQuant, which cuts key-value cache memory usage for large language models (LLMs) by at least 60%. The move has prompted markets to revise down AI hardware demand expectations. Per the Financial Times, U.S. memory chipmakers have lost nearly $100 billion in market value this week. Micron Technology’s stock has fallen 15% cumulatively since last Friday, wiping out over $70 billion in its market cap.

On-chain data shows the Hyperliquid team wallet unstaked 333,000 HYPE tokens (worth roughly $13 million) 11 hours ago as of March 30th. HYPE is currently trading at $37.56, with a 5.14% drop over the past 24 hours. Per an official prior announcement, 333,000 tokens from Hyperliquid Labs were set to be unstaked on March 29th and distributed to team members on April 6th.

March 30: Crypto analyst Willy Woo noted that some traditional on-chain models point to Bitcoin’s (BTC) bottom falling roughly between $46,000 and $54,000, while also flagging a potential waiting period. Capital parked in Bitcoin has been flowing out since November, though it’s important to note these models have limitations. These models rely on historical behavior, and Bitcoin has only seen four bear markets in its history—all of which unfolded amid a long-term bull market for risk assets. If this foundation breaks, we could enter uncharted territory (a deeper bear market). Finally, my personal view is that the probability of a deeper bear market is quite high due to the potential breakdown of the long-term global macro bull market structure.

**On Sunday local time, former President Trump told reporters on Air Force One that Iran has “met most” of the 15 ceasefire demands the U.S. previously presented to Tehran — though it’s unclear if the two sides are in substantive talks.** He said: “They’ve met most of our key points. Why wouldn’t they? We’ll put forward several more demands.” But he refused to disclose the specific concessions Iran made. Publicly, Iran has flatly rejected the 15 ceasefire conditions, instead proposing its own five prerequisites — including full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, officials from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in an effort to de-escalate the conflict, but there’s no sign of substantial progress so far. After meeting with counterparts from various countries, Pakistan’s foreign minister noted: “Both Iran and the U.S. have expressed confidence in Pakistan and are open to Pakistan hosting follow-up talks.” Neither side, however, has signaled readiness for