Willy Woo: Traditional on-chain models indicate that the Bitcoin price bottom is between $46,000 and $54,000
March 30: Crypto analyst Willy Woo noted that some traditional on-chain models point to Bitcoin’s (BTC) bottom falling roughly between $46,000 and $54,000, while also flagging a potential waiting period. Capital parked in Bitcoin has been flowing out since November, though it’s important to note these models have limitations.
These models rely on historical behavior, and Bitcoin has only seen four bear markets in its history—all of which unfolded amid a long-term bull market for risk assets. If this foundation breaks, we could enter uncharted territory (a deeper bear market). Finally, my personal view is that the probability of a deeper bear market is quite high due to the potential breakdown of the long-term global macro bull market structure.
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Trump: Iran Agrees to Most of the 15 Demands for Ceasefire
**On Sunday local time, former President Trump told reporters on Air Force One that Iran has “met most” of the 15 ceasefire demands the U.S. previously presented to Tehran — though it’s unclear if the two sides are in substantive talks.**
He said: “They’ve met most of our key points. Why wouldn’t they? We’ll put forward several more demands.” But he refused to disclose the specific concessions Iran made.
Publicly, Iran has flatly rejected the 15 ceasefire conditions, instead proposing its own five prerequisites — including full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Over the weekend, officials from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in an effort to de-escalate the conflict, but there’s no sign of substantial progress so far. After meeting with counterparts from various countries, Pakistan’s foreign minister noted: “Both Iran and the U.S. have expressed confidence in Pakistan and are open to Pakistan hosting follow-up talks.” Neither side, however, has signaled readiness for
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This Week's Unlock Schedule: SUI, EIGEN, ENA, and Others to Experience Large One-Time Token Unlock
Per Token Unlocks data as of March 30, several tokens—including SUI, EIGEN, ENA, and others—are set for one-time large unlocks this week. Key details follow:
- **SUI**: ~42.94 million tokens unlocked on April 1, valued at ~$38.32 million (1.16% of circulating supply)
- **GUN**: ~436 million tokens unlocked over the next 7 days, valued at ~$6.97 million (26.58% of circulating supply)
- **OPN**: ~32.09 million tokens unlocked on April 5, valued at ~$6.44 million (13.91% of circulating supply)
- **EIGEN**: ~36.82 million tokens unlocked on April 1, valued at ~$6.23 million (7.54% of circulating supply)
- **ENA**: ~40.63 million tokens unlocked on April 2, valued at ~$3.64 million (0.52% of circulating supply)
- **OP**: ~31.2745 million tokens unlocked on March 31, valued at ~$3.19 million (1.55% of circulating supply)
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This Week's Macro Outlook: Non-Farm Payrolls Meets U.S. Stock Market Holiday, U.S.-Iran Conflict to Face Key Turning Point
March 30: The U.S.-Iran conflict has persisted for a month, with the coming week set to bring ongoing uncertainties and potential black swan events. Every small development—whether in peace talks or escalating tensions—will test the market’s already frayed nerves.
Beyond geopolitical risks, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Federal Reserve will outline their interest rate hike outlooks, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls data will heavily influence market liquidity expectations. Below is the key schedule (Beijing Time, BJT):
- **Monday, 07:50 BJT**: BOJ releases summary of opinions from its March monetary policy meeting
- **Tuesday, 04:00 BJT**: New York Fed President John Williams delivers a speech
- **Wednesday, 00:00 BJT**: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans gives opening remarks at a bank-hosted event
- **Wednesday, 23:00 BJT**: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (2026 FOMC voter) speaks
- **Thursday, 20:30 BJT**: U.S. initial jobless claims (Mar 28 week) + February trade balance
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