Bitunix Analyst: War Delay and Liquidity Contraction Resonance Trap BTC in 65K–72K Liquidation Range

March 27 — Global markets are in a state of **surface stability, underlying imbalance**: - The EU-U.S. trade deal has been approved; the U.S. has lifted some sanctions and delayed strikes on Iranian energy facilities to steady policy/diplomatic expectations, but military assets are already deploying to the Middle East. Geopolitical risks haven’t cooled — they’ve just been “priced for later.” - Turkey is dumping gold; the EU is hiking trade costs; Japan is signaling FX intervention. All point to countries using synchronized, targeted tools to reclaim liquidity and shore up domestic currencies. Global capital is shifting from free flow to regional defense. **Most critically, inflation’s “logic” has reanchored**: - Fed officials have explicitly shifted risk focus from jobs to inflation — signaling tighter policy tolerance. Oil price and war uncertainty have kept “rate cut expectations” getting priced out. - As Japan’s rates rise and the yen nears intervention levels, risks of capital flowing home and carry trade reversals are amplifying. In this context, the dollar’s strength isn’t just safe-haven demand — it’s liquidity recapture. Global markets are entering passive deleveraging and asset repricing. ### Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC) as a liquidity barometer Currently, BTC oscillates in a wide range (~$65k–$72k): - Volume data shows heavy supply pressure above $70k; passive buying absorbs selling near $65k. - CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) is creeping up, but prices haven’t hit a matching high — active buyers exist, but lack continuity (they’re soaking up selling, not driving trends). - Large holders’ long/short ratio remains low: Conservative positioning dominates, with no one-sided leverage skew. ### What this means for BTC The setup mirrors the macro backdrop: Funds don’t want to exit, but won’t take directional risk. So BTC keeps passively matching liquidity and getting whipsawed in dense zones. **Short-term outlook**: If war stays “delayed but unresolved” and rate cuts keep getting priced out, BTC will likely keep oscillating in $65k–$72k — completing chip transfers by clearing liquidity between those levels. A real trend breakout needs consistent shifts in three key macro variables, not a one-off event.