Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in a negative premium for 8 consecutive days, with buying power in the US market remaining weak

**March 26** U.S. initial jobless claims edged up slightly last week, signaling a stable labor market while giving the Federal Reserve leeway to keep interest rates unchanged as it monitors inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict. The Labor Department reported Thursday that claims rose by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 in the week ended March 21. Driven by modest layoffs, claims have remained in the 201,000-230,000 range so far this year. Economists note that ongoing uncertainty from former President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies has weighed on labor demand. Private-sector nonfarm payrolls averaged just 18,000 monthly gains over the three months through February. They also point out that the Trump administration’s hardline immigration policies reduced labor supply, further restraining employment growth. This has led to what Fed Chair Jerome Powell described this month as a “balanced state of zero employment growth”—a situation he noted “poses downside

March 26 — Initial U.S. jobless claims for the week ended March 21 totaled 210,000, meeting expectations and edging up slightly from the prior week’s 205,000. Per CME’s FedWatch Tool, after today’s claims data release, the probability of a 25 basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s April meeting is now 6.2%, while the odds of rates remaining unchanged stand at 93.8%.

March 26 — Bitget data shows MARA Holdings’ U.S. stock pre-market trading briefly rose over 10% earlier, currently trading at $8.77 with its gain narrowing to 6%. The company previously announced plans to sell 15,133 Bitcoins to repurchase $1 billion in convertible bonds.

US initial jobless claims came in at 210,000 for the week ended March 21, matching expectations, while the prior week’s reading was 205,000. (Forex Factory)

March 26 — XFX, a forex trading startup focused on stablecoin transactions, announced it has closed a $17 million Series A funding round, per a Fortune report. The round was led by Castle Island Ventures, with participation from Haun Ventures and Coinbase Ventures. The capital will be used to boost the efficiency of fiat-stablecoin foreign exchange. XFX co-founder and CEO Santiago Alvarado declined to disclose the company’s valuation from this round. Currently, the firm lets customers swap stablecoins as well as fiat currencies including the U.S. dollar, Mexican peso, and Colombian peso.

**March 26 Reuters Survey: Fed Seen Holding Rates Through September, Markets Price Near-30% Hike Odds This Year** Economists project the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady through September, per a March 26 Reuters survey. Despite ongoing inflation concerns tied to the Middle East war, they still expect at least one rate cut later this year. In contrast, financial markets have fully ruled out rate cuts in 2024, with nearly 30% odds of a hike—driven by a 40%+ jump in crude oil prices amid four weeks of U.S.-Iran conflict. Economists view the energy shock’s impact as limited and short-lived. The survey shows wide divergence in end-2026 rate forecasts, split into four camps: 28 expect one cut, 37 see two cuts, 13 forecast no change this year, and 4 predict three cuts. (Source: FXStreet)