Is Gold Entering a Technical Bear Market? Wall Street Split Widens, Bulls Warn of a "Gold Pit" Leading to $1,000

March 24: The recent sharp pullback in gold prices has sparked market turbulence. Since peaking around $5,594 in January, spot gold has dropped roughly 21%—entering a technical bear market—with short-term bearish sentiment dominating. Market analysis attributes this decline primarily to liquidity tightening and U.S. dollar strength. Since the Middle East conflict escalated, the dollar index has risen about 3%, while investor unwinding and portfolio rebalancing needs have pushed funds out of gold and other high-liquidity assets. Additionally, former President Trump’s decision to postpone strikes on Iranian energy facilities temporarily eased geopolitical tensions, weakening gold’s safe-haven demand. Despite short-term weakness, some Wall Street institutions and strategists still hold long-term bullish views. Renowned economist Ed Yardeni noted his target for gold to hit $10,000 by the end of the decade remains unchanged. Institutional consensus also cites ongoing central bank gold purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and potential dollar weakness as medium- to long-term supports. Firms including Global X argue this pullback is more a “deleveraging event + short-term mispricing” than a fundamental reversal, viewing the current range as an attractive allocation window. Standard Chartered forecasts gold prices will gradually recover in the coming months as the deleveraging phase wraps up and monetary policy expectations shift. Overall, amid overlapping impacts from inflation expectations, central bank demand, and the dollar cycle, gold may face continued short-term pressure—but the market is increasingly divided on whether the long-term structural bull market remains intact.