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Analysis: Pressure on Risk Assets such as Bitcoin Due to Rising Oil Prices and Fed Pause on Rate Cuts

2 hours ago

**Crypto Market Under Pressure Amid Macro Headwinds (March 19)** CoinDesk reports Bitcoin fell to ~$70,000, Ethereum dropped to $2,160, and the broader crypto market faced downward pressure Wednesday. Two key macro bearish factors overlapped: 1. **Fed Policy**: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, keeping the federal funds rate range at 3.50%-3.75% and pausing its rate-cut cycle. This pushed the U.S. dollar higher and weighed on risk assets. 2. **Geopolitical Tensions**: After Israel targeted Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, Iran struck key Gulf energy infrastructure. Brent crude rose to $114, Oman crude hit $150, and European natural gas futures surged ~25% to over $78/MWh Thursday. ### Derivatives Data - Crypto exchanges liquidated nearly $600 million in leveraged positions over 24 hours, with long positions dominating—signaling the overnight drop caught bullish traders off guard. - Total futures open interest (OI) fell 5.6% to $106.9 billion; Ethereum futures OI dropped 9%. - Funding rates for BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL turned negative, indicating rising short demand. - Bitcoin’s 30-day Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) rose 5%+ to 58.36%, breaking its prior week’s downtrend. - Bearish options skew for BTC/ETH strengthened on Deribit as downside concerns mounted.
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OpenAI announced the acquisition of Astral to strengthen its presence in the programming field.

On March 19, OpenAI announced it has reached an agreement to acquire Astral. Once the acquisition closes, OpenAI plans to integrate the Astral team into its Codex division, continuing to focus on building top-tier tools and advancing their shared mission of boosting developer productivity.

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Binance: Recently, there have been several asset security incidents in the community due to device environment issues. Users should pay attention to protecting their private key/mnemonic phrase security.

On March 19, Binance issued a security advisory highlighting multiple recent asset security breaches in the crypto community tied to device environment issues. The platform urged users to prioritize protecting their private keys and mnemonics. Binance’s non-custodial wallet uses MPC-based technology, which distributes key shards across separate, independent environments. This setup boosts asset management security and effectively cuts down on key leaks and attack risks.

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Opera intends to acquire 160 million CELO to become a significant stakeholder in the Celo network

CoinDesk reported on March 19 that Opera—Nasdaq-listed browser company—has filed a proposal with the Celo governance forum to convert a prior cash transaction into a distribution of 160 million CELO tokens. Once approved by token holders, Opera will become a major stakeholder in the Celo network. The 160 million CELO tokens represent roughly 27% of Celo’s current circulating supply (about 600 million tokens) and 16% of its total maximum supply (1 billion tokens). The tokens will be transferred in a one-time batch from the unreleased treasury to a Safe wallet controlled by Opera. To preserve governance balance, the proposal caps the voting power of these tokens at 10% of total staked CELO—excluding protocol emergency scenarios. CELO is currently trading at around $0.07, a sharp drop from its late-2021 peak of over $6. Opera operates MiniPay, a self-custodial crypto wallet built on Celo—an Ethereum Layer 2 network designed for low-cost payments. MiniPay lets users send stablecoi

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Spot Silver Plunges Over 10%, Approaching $67/oz Level

On March 19, Bitget Market Data indicates spot silver has fallen more than 10%, approaching $67 per ounce. Spot gold has dropped below $4,550 per ounce, down over 5.5% intraday.

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Spot Gold Breaks Below $4600/Ounce

**March 19** — Spot gold tumbled below $4,600 per ounce Wednesday, hitting its lowest level since Feb. 2, per Bitget market data. The precious metal is down 4.5% intraday. ### Notes on American English conventions: 1. **Concise structure**: Uses a dash to separate date from core event (common in news alerts). 2. **Vivid verb**: "Tumbled" (instead of "fell") emphasizes the sharp 4.5% drop (natural for financial updates). 3. **Number formatting**: $4,600 (comma as thousand separator, standard in US). 4. **Abbreviations**: "Feb. 2" (shortened month/day for brevity) and "intraday" (industry shorthand). 5. **Data sourcing**: "Per Bitget market data" (casual yet clear, preferred in quick alerts over formal "according to").

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The US Initial Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Drop, Layoffs at Low Level

March 19 (FXStreet) — U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined last week, pointing to a stable labor market and a potential rebound in March employment growth. The Labor Department reported Thursday that seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ended March 14 fell by 8,000 to 205,000, below the 215,000 forecast by markets. The U.S. government has rolled out new seasonal factors for 2026 and revised factors for 2021–2025, along with corresponding claims data for those years. While businesses remain hesitant to expand their workforces amid uncertainty over former President Trump’s large-scale tariff measures, layoffs stay at historically low levels. Economists note that the Trump administration’s tightened immigration policies have cut labor supply, which has also constrained employment growth.

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