FOMC Expectations Summary: Rate Cut May Have to Wait Until October, High Bar for Further Cuts

**Market Expectations: Fed Set to Hold Rates Steady at March FOMC Meeting** As of March 18, markets broadly see the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) keeping interest rates unchanged at its 2 p.m. decision meeting tomorrow—with the probability of a cut near zero, and no near-term cuts expected. Futures pricing signals policymakers won’t consider policy easing until at least September (more likely October), and even then, only one rate cut is likely this year. CNBC rounded up mainstream expectations for the gathering: - A senior investment strategist at Russell Investments noted: “The March meeting is all but certain to hold rates steady. But any clues Chair Powell may drop about the future rate path will be critical. The U.S. economy remains robust overall—but that also means the bar for further U.S. rate cuts may be quite high.” - A Fed watcher at Bank of America (BofA) wrote in a report: “With markets having almost entirely ruled out an April rate cut, Powell’s ability to guide markets hinges on how much investors believe his remarks reflect the committee’s consensus, not just his personal views. Even setting that constraint aside, Powell’s job remains challenging.” - Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson told CNBC he expects the committee’s post-meeting statement to be “cautious” in its language on inflation, unemployment, economic growth, and the expected policy path.