Bitunix Analyst: Middle East Geopolitics Enters 'Irreversible Game,' Oil Chain and Policy Expectations Diverge, BTC Tests High Liquidity Area Before Falling

March 17 The Middle East situation remains escalated, shifting market focus away from "ceasefire prospects" toward "full threat mitigation." Trump called for Fed rate cuts and hinted the conflict would eventually push oil prices lower, but Gulf nations have undergone a structural attitude shift—from conflict avoidance to backing efforts to weaken Iran’s military capabilities. Regional risk has evolved from a short-term event to a long-term restructuring of the security framework. Meanwhile, the U.S. has allowed some oil tankers to transit through the region, even as oil-producing nations face supply disruptions, leaving the energy market in a highly distorted state. Policy divergence has widened: On one hand, conflict is pushing up energy and transportation costs, entrenching sticky inflation; on the other, economic momentum is losing steam. Markets have quickly adjusted their Fed expectations—rate cut probabilities have dropped sharply, with a chance of renewed rate hikes later this year—sparking a "wait-and-see" stance. This means the current liquidity environment may not offer clear support to risk assets in the near term, as funds lean more toward event-driven and short-term speculative trades. From a cross-market perspective, supply disruptions are hitting oil, shipping, and industrial metals simultaneously, but policy uncertainty has deepened fund divergences: Some are betting on inflation trades amid escalating conflict, while others are already pricing in demand destruction. This "bipolar pricing" dynamic has caused risk assets to oscillate rather than trend. Turning to crypto market structure: BTC extended its rally after reclaiming $71,300, hitting the high-liquidity zone of $74k–$75k. In the short term, potential resistance lies around $76.5k–$77.4k; the current pullback signals ongoing selling pressure in that zone. Key downside support levels are first around $72.8k, followed by the former resistance-turned-support zone near $71.3k. Overall, the market has shifted from a "macro-driven uptrend" to "event-driven volatility." If liquidity at the upper end continues to be absorbed and prices hold above $74k, it signals sustained risk appetite; conversely, a drop back below $72.8k would push the market back into a range and retest the bull-bear line near $71k. Current price action is essentially probing and liquidating high-liquidity levels, not confirming a trend.