Sources Say US and Iran Unlikely to Ceasefire, Middle East Conflict Could Prove Enduring

On March 15, Bloomberg released an analysis noting that Bitcoin has neared its historical bear market bottom range, with the $45,000 to $55,000 level potentially marking the ultimate floor. The piece cites Brett Munster, crypto fund manager at Blockforce Capital, who stated Bitcoin currently presents a more asymmetrical upside opportunity than downside risk—suggesting investors trying to “time the final percentage points of its decline” may miss out on the broader trend. Long-term indicators like the MVRV Z-Score, Realized Price, and 200-week moving average all signal Bitcoin has entered a historically undervalued range, the analysis adds. It also notes that as liquidity and market maturity grow, maximum drawdowns in historical bear markets have trended lower.

**Anduril Founder Luckey: U.S. Lacks Political Will for Iran Ground War, Calls for Shift from "World Police" to "Arms Dealer"** On March 15, Anduril Industries founder Palmer Luckey told *The Axios Show* that decades of Middle East military engagements have eroded U.S. political consensus around ground wars—and three weeks into the latest conflict, there are no clear next steps. The U.S., he said, lacks the "political will" to launch a ground war against Iran. Luckey noted former President Trump’s current approach (in Venezuela and Iran, for example) represents a new style of warfare. "I don’t think the U.S. is prepared to fight a WWII-scale war now—even for a just cause, let alone amid public disagreement," he stated. "We can’t pull off another Normandy landing, and that’s a problem: it means we might not show up for even critical battles. But that’s why I’ve long argued the U.S. probably needs to shift from being the ‘world police’ to the ‘world arms dealer.’" Anduril, a U.S

On March 15th, Native Markets—issuer of Hyperliquid’s native stablecoin USDH—will launch tokenized collateral pmUSDH. When users deposit USDH into their portfolio margin accounts, the protocol will convert that position into an ERC-20-compliant pmUSDH token. Token holders will be entitled to interest income from borrowers and can use the token across multiple DeFi protocols, including Felix, Hyperlend, Pendle, and Rysk.

March 15th — Official sources confirm that high-end luxury jeweler and watchmaker Jacob & Co. has teamed up with Bitcoin mining platform GoMining to release the $40,000 Epic X GoMining watch. Limited to just 100 pieces, the timepiece features a 44mm black DLC titanium case, a skeletonized manual-winding movement, and a Bitcoin-inspired bridge designed exclusively by GoMining. Each watch also includes a 1000 TH digital mining rig that integrates directly into the owner’s GoMining account.

**Jinan Daily: Dezhou Police Crack First Virtual Currency-Tied Underground Money Laundering Case in 2023** On March 15, Jinan Daily reported that during the 2023 investigation of a telecom fraud case in Dezhou, Shandong Province, female economic investigation officer Li Weiwei optimized her approach by tracking fund flows and analyzing account transfer patterns. She uncovered a new criminal scheme blending *traditional underground money laundering and virtual currency*—a model far more covert and difficult to trace than conventional methods. After days of nonstop work, Li identified 12 key suspects, over 100 funding accounts, and six virtual currency wallet addresses. Collaborating with the task force, she mapped a clear gang structure and fund flow chart. Authorities froze related assets in line with the law, resolving Dezhou’s first underground money laundering case involving virtual currency successfully.

**March 15 (Kobeissi Letter) — Amid the Iran war, S&P 500 futures liquidity has fallen to $5.1 million, near the lowest level since April 2025’s “Liberation Day.” The reading marks a 61% drop from its historical average of ~$13 million, per Goldman Sachs data, which flags a level below $7 million as a market stress signal.** **Analysis: Low liquidity means a multi-million-dollar order can move the S&P 500 by one point — echoing the volatility triggered by the 2025 tariff announcement. This amplifies institutional trade impacts, so investors should brace for extreme swings.**