Oil Price Rollercoaster Takes Center Stage at Hormuz

March 13 – Oil prices swung wildly in early trading today, per Bitget market data. Brent crude briefly neared $100/bbl, WTI hit ~$98/bbl, and both have since pulled back to $97.4 and $95.1/bbl, respectively. Earlier this Monday, Brent surged to nearly $100/bbl before tumbling below the threshold. Previously, the U.S. Treasury was weighing measures to cool oil prices, including futures market intervention. The Trump administration has temporarily permitted countries to buy Russian crude stranded at sea amid urgent efforts to stabilize global energy markets. It also announced Wednesday it would release oil from strategic reserves to head off a price shock. CME Group’s chief warned the administration that trying to lower oil prices via derivatives market intervention during tensions with Iran could spark an “epic disaster.” Still, wild price swings have fueled market speculation the Treasury may have intervened—though the department has declined to comment on the chatter. Right now, markets are bracing for oil to hit $200/bbl, with all eyes on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mujtaba issued his first statement this morning, vowing no letup in retaliation, saying the strait will stay closed, and planning to use the strategic waterway (through which 20% of global oil supplies pass) as leverage against the U.S. and Israel. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bennett noted the Navy will escort oil tankers through the strait—but the measure may not be implemented by month’s end. Per PolyBeats monitoring, Polymarket (a prediction platform) shows: - 46% chance the Strait of Hormuz reopens before April 30 - 41% chance oil hits $120/bbl by month’s end - 4% chance oil surges past $200/bbl by month’s end (Link: PolyBeats)