Germany and Japan take the lead in confirming the release of oil reserves, with oil prices unlikely to reach a new high before the end of March.

**March 11 —** Amid escalating Middle East conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has de facto closed, posing a severe threat to global energy security. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is planning its largest-ever strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) release. Insiders report the IEA proposes releasing 300 million to 400 million barrels of oil—far exceeding the 182 million barrels deployed in two separate interventions during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Germany and Japan have already taken the lead: - Japan will release ~80 million barrels of crude from commercial and government reserves, stressing it would face the worst impact if the Strait remains closed and needs immediate action. - Germany’s economy minister confirmed the country will release 2.4 million tons of its national SPR. Other IEA members—including the UK, Austria, and South Korea—have also signaled willingness to coordinate their response. **Market Updates:** - Bitget data shows WTI crude and Brent oil are down on the day: WTI has fallen below $88.3/barrel, Brent below $85.5/barrel. - PolyBeats monitoring of prediction platform Polymarket finds: - 10% chance crude hits its all-time high ($147.27) by March’s end. - 29% chance crude exceeds $120/barrel by March’s end. This rewrite uses American English conventions (e.g., *tons* instead of *tonnes*, *SPR* for clarity, conversational news tone) and structures information for quick skimming—aligning with U.S. media style for breaking updates.