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Next Week Macro Outlook: Stagflation Ghost Returns, CPI and PCE Data Become Key Variables

2026.03.07 19:18:11

**Market Focus: Iran Uncertainty, Fed Stagflation Risks, Key US/UK Data This Week** (Updated March 7) Iran’s worsening situation and lingering uncertainty over its future have fueled intense market volatility this week. Recent data signals the Federal Reserve will need to address rising inflation and weakening employment to curb stagflation risks. Below are key market-moving events (all times in Beijing Time): - **Monday 23:00**: US February New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectation - **Wednesday 20:30**: US February non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) CPI YoY, NSA Core CPI YoY; Seasonally adjusted (SA) CPI MoM, SA Core CPI MoM - **Friday 15:00**: UK January 3-month GDP MoM, Jan Manufacturing/Industrial Production MoM, Jan SA Goods Trade Balance - **Friday 20:30**: US January Core PCE Price Index YoY/MoM; US Jan Personal Spending MoM; US Q4 Real GDP Annualized QoQ (revised); US Jan Durable Goods Orders MoM - **Friday 22:00**: US January JOLTs Job Openings; US March 1-Year Inflation Expectation (preliminary); US March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) **Market Impact**: A stronger-than-expected Core CPI (MoM) and Core PCE (MoM) could further support the U.S. dollar. Conversely, softer readings may weigh on the greenback, boosting a rebound in spot gold. **Corporate Update**: Oracle (ORCL.N) will release its earnings report after Tuesday’s U.S. stock market close. (Source: FXStreet)
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