Source: Coinbase Team Visited White House Today, Unclear If They Met With Trump

**Market Note: $920M Oil Short Preceded Axios’ U.S.-Iran Deal Report** Analysis from research firm The Kobeissi Letter shows a ~$920 million crude oil short position was established roughly 70 minutes before Axios reported the U.S. and Iran were near a 14-point agreement to end tensions. The trade occurred at 3:40 AM EDT (15:40 Beijing time) — a window with no major breaking news — involving nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts. Its nominal value made it an unusually large transaction for that early hour. Seventy minutes later, at 4:50 AM EDT (16:40 Beijing time), Axios confirmed the U.S. was “close” to a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to de-escalate the Iran situation. By 7:00 AM EDT (19:00 Beijing time), oil prices had plummeted more than 12%, leaving the short position with a paper profit of ~$125 million, per FXStreet.

On May 6, Polymarket data shows the probability that Strategy will sell any amount of Bitcoin by year-end has jumped sharply to 49%—up from just 12% on May 5. Additionally, the odds of any Bitcoin sales by May 31, 2026, stand at 17%, while the figure rises to 26% for June 30, 2026. This shift follows Strategy founder Michael Saylor departing from his longstanding "never sell" stance for the first time. During the company’s Q1 2026 earnings call, he noted the possibility of offloading a portion of its Bitcoin holdings to fund dividends, saying: “We might sell some Bitcoin to pay dividends, with the aim of market desensitization and signaling that we have indeed done so.”

On May 7, Onchain Lens data shows a freshly created wallet withdrew 349,999 HYPE tokens from Coinbase over the past 24 hours (valued at roughly $15.21 million) and has since staked the tokens.

On May 6, advisory firm SOC Investment Group called on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate SpaceX’s financial health ahead of its planned initial public offering (IPO), which could value the company at over $2 trillion. The firm expressed concern over SpaceX’s ties to other companies owned by Elon Musk. Per a May 6 letter sent to the SEC, SOC asked the regulator to review the accuracy and reliability of SpaceX’s financial disclosures and confirm the independence of its audit firm. SOC also pushed the SEC to examine how SpaceX accounts for transactions with Musk’s other companies. In the letter, the firm noted: “We are particularly concerned that SpaceX’s IPO will expose a broad set of investors to a company whose value could drop once its financial disclosures are independently reviewed and verified.” (Jinse)

On May 6, Kraken launched CFTC-regulated cryptocurrency spot margin trading for U.S. retail users—shortly after its parent company acquired the Bitnomial derivatives platform. Such products were previously unavailable to most U.S. retail users, pushing many to offshore platforms. Kraken noted users can trade with up to 10x leverage, using their crypto assets as collateral without selling them. The launch follows Monday’s announcement that Payward—Kraken’s parent company—has finalized its acquisition of Bitnomial. Based in Chicago, Bitnomial is a crypto derivatives exchange with CFTC licenses as a matching platform, contract market, and clearinghouse. Payward said the deal will eventually let it offer regulated spot margin, perpetual futures, and options to U.S. users. The move also bolsters Kraken’s position in regulated derivatives infrastructure as it eyes a potential public listing. Payward filed a confidential draft S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exch

On May 6, Glassnode’s latest report noted that Bitcoin has climbed above its Realized Price Cap ($78,200) and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($79,100). If it holds above this range over the next week, the “deep value phase” that began in February 2026 could become the shortest in Bitcoin’s history. The next key resistance level in the current market sits around $85,200. On-chain data shows the 30-day Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has flipped positive, hitting 0.003% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. Long-Term Holder (LTH) realized profits have risen to $180 million daily, though still well below the cycle’s earlier peak of over $1 billion. Daily unrealized losses, however, remain elevated at $479 million—140% above this cycle’s stable range. Glassnode notes these losses need to keep falling below $200 million to confirm a healthier demand recovery. On the funding front, the 30-day net inflow for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs has flipped positive again, signaling a rebound in institu