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On April 4, Iran’s top joint military command announced a new air defense system had become operational, noting it will exercise full control over the country’s airspace.

April 4th — Despite a slight easing of U.S.-Iran tensions over the weekend, the U.S. continued searching for a crew member from an F-15E fighter jet downed by Iran on Friday. Tehran, meanwhile, launched ongoing attacks on Gulf Arab states and Israel across the weekend. A separate U.S. military aircraft crashed in the Persian Gulf the same day (Friday). Both sides are set to maintain high tensions next week, with multiple stakeholders appearing to have fully anticipated potential U.S. ground force deployment into Iran. Aside from the Iran conflict, next week’s macro events will be headlined by the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, with analysts expecting the document to confirm the hawkish tilt reflected in the latest dot plot. The key event schedule is below: - **Monday 22:00**: U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - **Tuesday 15:50–16:30**: France/Germany/Eurozone/UK March Final Services PMI - **Tuesday 23:00**: U.S. New York Fed March 1-Year Inflation Expectations - **Wed

April 4: Iranian state media reports Iran says a ship linked to Israel was damaged by an unmanned drone in the Gulf of Oman, forced to stop at sea and caught fire.

April 4th: A CryptoQuant analysis finds the crypto market’s sentiment and fund flows are out of sync: the Fear & Greed Index is in extreme fear territory (8–14), but March ETF net inflows topped $1 billion; the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, reflecting limited U.S. institutional participation. Geopolitical tensions (Iran conflict) have caused price swings, with the market adopting a wait-and-see stance—overall demand is slowing rather than seeing panic selling. Despite a ~47% drop from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 (far less than the 85%+ crashes in 2013 and 2017), analyst Zack Wainwright notes this signals Bitcoin’s market is maturing, with volatility steadily contracting. Potential catalysts include: Morgan Stanley’s greenlight for a low-fee Bitcoin ETF (granting access to $6.2 trillion overseen by 16,000 financial advisors) and the Strategy STRC preferred stock product’s ongoing monthly purchase of 44,000 BTC (which could add steady buying pressure). Sho

On April 4th, official sources confirm that Based — the cryptocurrency exchange and payment platform in Hyperliquid’s ecosystem — has launched its Launchpool program and its first associated project, Pull Fun. Token holders of Based can earn points via staking to join the Launchpool event. Reports indicate that Pull Fun is a gashapon platform for trading card games, featuring a real physical card inventory.

April 4 (Bloomberg) — Marex Group Plc, a global financial services platform, has issued what is believed to be the world’s first bond-like note tied to forecast market outcomes. Unlike traditional binary options contracts, the note’s terms specify: If Nvidia Corp. remains the world’s largest company by market capitalization one year from now, investors will receive a 7% coupon; if not, their principal will be fully repaid (with only potential interest lost, no full principal risk). The issuance totals approximately $10 million, sold to Swiss institutional clients and restricted to regions outside the U.S. due to regulatory constraints. Marex will dynamically hedge risks via prediction market platforms such as Kalshi. Per the report, this marks the latest Wall Street effort to “securitize” the power of prediction markets, providing a compliant, low-risk entry point for traditional large-scale funds.