Latest Update on US-Iran Situation: Iran Claims to Have Closed the Strait of Hormuz, US Response States It Has Not Closed

On March 3, Ebrahim Jabari, an advisor to the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), issued a stark warning: the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran will fire on any vessel attempting to transit the waterway, and it will target oil pipelines and tanker routes. This marks the most explicit threat since Iran notified ships on Saturday it would shut the critical export chokepoint—one that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, a move that could disrupt supplies and send crude prices sharply higher. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) pushed back, however, stating the Strait of Hormuz remains open despite the IRGC’s claims. Iran is not patrolling the strait, and there are no signs it is laying mines there, a Fox News reporter noted. Global crude prices surged in response. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), April light crude futures jumped $4.21 to settle at $71.23 per barrel—up 6.28% on March 2. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Monday the U.S. will take steps to ease energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict. He added Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette will announce related plans on Tuesday. Separately, the U.S. State Department is urging Americans to “depart immediately” from more than a dozen Middle Eastern countries and regions, including Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen. A senior U.S. official told CNN the U.S. is preparing for a “major attack” on Iran within the next 24 hours. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted the Iran conflict is leaning the Federal Reserve toward holding interest rates steady. The duration of the conflict’s oil market impact will determine how much it dents U.S. economic growth and stokes inflation—complicating the Fed’s policy path. Per CME Group’s “FedWatch Tool,” the probability the Fed keeps rates unchanged in March stands at 97.5%, with markets still betting on near-term policy stability. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said there will be no significant inflation if the conflict does not escalate, adding the current situation will only drive a small rise in natural gas prices. In forex trading, the U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.79% on March 2, closing at 98.382.