Last Night's US-Iran Situation Recap: Iranian Senior Officials Killed in Attack, Over 200 Ships Stranded in the Strait of Hormuz

**March 2nd — Middle East tensions escalated sharply Wednesday as U.S. and Israeli forces launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran.** Iran confirmed multiple senior officials, including the Supreme Leader, were killed in the strikes. The conflict quickly spilled over, roiling global energy and financial markets. ### Key Updates: - **U.S. Stance**: President Trump said the military operation could last ~4 weeks. U.S. forces struck hundreds of targets (IRGC headquarters, air defense systems, naval facilities) — no nuclear sites involved, he noted. B-2 stealth bombers were used, per U.S. disclosures. - **Iran’s Response**: Tehran formed a temporary leadership committee. The IRGC launched its 9th round of the “True Commitment 4” operation, claiming to down multiple U.S./Israeli drones. It warned it would target regional oil/gas infrastructure if its energy facilities are attacked. - **Shipping/Insurance**: >200 vessels (oil/LNG tankers) are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters. Some tankers were damaged in Persian Gulf coast attacks. War risk premiums could rise 25%-50%, per brokers. - **Oil Markets**: Goldman Sachs estimates: - Full Hormuz cutoff (6 weeks) → $18/bbl risk premium - 50% cutoff (1 month) → ~$4 premium Brent/WTI surged in early trading. Firms warn $90/bbl would force a reassessment of global inflation/monetary policy. - **Safe Havens/Equities**: Gold strengthened; USD/JPY held steady, USD/CHF weakened; EUR/USD fell below 1.18. Middle East stocks dropped 4%-5% intraday; Iran’s market halted trading, some UAE exchanges closed temporarily. - **Fed Watch**: CME FedWatch puts March rate-hold odds at 93.6% — markets expect near-term policy stability. ### Other Developments: - U.S. Capitol stepped up security. - UK reports explosion at a Cyprus British military base. - Northern Pakistan imposed a curfew. - EU will deploy more warships to boost Red Sea/Gulf security. ### Critical Variables: 1. Whether the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked 2. If the conflict expands regionally 3. Whether rising energy prices reignite global inflation expectations ### Outlook: If energy transport remains unimpeded, markets may partially recover. A major hit to oil/gas supply would amplify global asset volatility.