Arthur Hayes: If Trump Ups Ante on Iran, Fed May Have to Ease, Positive for Bitcoin
On March 2nd, Arthur Hayes published his latest article, “iOS Warfare,” which leverages the U.S.’s escalating military actions against Iran to analyze the potential interplay between war, Federal Reserve policy, and the crypto market.
Hayes notes that since the 1990 Gulf War and 2001 “War on Terror,” the Federal Reserve has typically responded in the aftermath of U.S. military launches or escalations in the Middle East by cutting interest rates or injecting liquidity to offset economic impacts. He argues that continued escalation of the Iran issue by the Trump administration could create fiscal pressure and financial market volatility—providing “political cover” for the Fed to further cut rates or restart easing policies.
Hayes frames his logic simply: longer wars bring higher costs, increasing the likelihood of Fed monetary policy loosening. Cheaper, more abundant dollar liquidity typically benefits risk assets—including Bitcoin.
For trading strategies, Hayes advises investor
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Musk: X Platform Usage Reaches New All-Time High
On March 2, a day later, Musk again retweeted X product manager Nikita Bier’s related post, which noted X’s usage had hit a new all-time high.
BlockBeats reported yesterday that Musk quoted Bier’s tweet—where she stated “Today is X’s highest-traffic day in history”—to declare, “X has the highest usage ever.”
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Analyst: The market is not experiencing panic at the moment, but the stock market may face a larger-scale sell-off during the Asian session
**March 2 (Monday) Open Brief**
U.S. stock index futures are trending lower broadly, while crude oil and gold prices have risen—though no panic has materialized yet.
Institutional analyst Mark Kudmore noted most non-energy commodities have seen minimal moves, with nearly all pulling back from opening extremes.
Crude’s gain has narrowed from over 13% at the open to 8%, with profit-taking starting to kick in. Gold and silver are both up more than 1%, but the rise looks moderate given recent market volatility.
*Bottom line*: It’s too early to call a trend, but there’s no current panic.
**Caution**：Don’t mistake this for a reliable guide for today’s full session. As Asian spot markets come online one by one, broader selling pressure could emerge—especially if “memory trades” (which have lifted South Korea’s KOSPI 50% YTD) hit snags.
(Source: FX678)
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A whale exchanged 1,000 ETH for 358.49 XAUT, at an average price of $5,413
On March 2, Onchain Lens data shows a whale address sold 1,000 ETH for roughly $1.94 million, swapping the proceeds for 358.49 XAUT at an average price of $5,413 per token—incurring a loss of over $60,000 on the trade.
Over the past two years, the address has cumulatively purchased 1,645 ETH for $3.26 million and still holds 645 ETH (valued at approximately $1.25 million).
Address: 0x744b0b1c4132d79ec106cb62c630d961c4a0d849
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WSJ: Gulf States May Strike Iran Missile Site
March 2: Regional officials told the Wall Street Journal that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf states are unlikely to tolerate prolonged Iranian attacks. One potential option: striking missile and drone launch sites inside Iran.
UAE foreign affairs advisor Anwar Gargash said: “We shouldn’t stick to passive defense—we need to be more proactive. We have to consider the nature of the emerging conflict. Plus, we have our own capabilities, and our approach is that responses must match the conflict’s severity.”
On Sunday, the UAE shuttered its Tehran embassy and pulled its diplomats out of Iran.
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War Time Validation: Hyperliquid is the go-to safe haven during crises, with 24/7 non-stop trading as its major advantage
**March 2: Hyperliquid Emerges as Key Hedging Venue Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions**
As U.S.-Iran tensions escalated and traditional financial markets closed for the weekend, crypto derivatives platform Hyperliquid became the top spot for investors to hedge commodity risks.
Bloomberg reports that around the Feb. 28 conflict outbreak, a wave of crypto traders flocked to Hyperliquid to trade perpetual contracts tied to crude oil, gold and other assets—aiming to shield against geopolitical shocks. Unlike traditional contracts, perpetuals have no expiration and support 24/7 trading, making them the only real-time hedging tool available while mainstream markets were shut.
Prior to this, Avi Felman, a senior executive at an investment firm, predicted Hyperliquid would be "indispensable to fund managers thanks to its nonstop 24/7 trading." That forecast held during the Middle East crisis: when global commodity and forex markets were closed, the crypto futures market stepped in to handle pri
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