Kalshi CEO: Not Allowed to Settle on Death, Hameini-Related Prediction Markets Will Settle Based on Price Before Demise

Kalshi Co-Founder and CEO Tarek Mansour posted on X on March 1 regarding Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei: “Regarding Khamenei: We will not list markets directly tied to ‘death.’ If a market’s potential outcome involves death, we will use rule design to prevent people from profiting from deadly events—this is exactly what we’re doing here. I know some disagree, arguing these markets should launch without a ‘death exclusion clause’ for simpler rules, and that many traditional markets (e.g., crude oil futures) could be seen as indirectly linked to war and death. But we believe this differs from markets that settle directly based on someone’s death—the latter is prohibited for U.S.-regulated entities.” However, today’s events have revealed opportunities to improve user experience and make rules more prominent. Kalshi will take the following actions: - Refund all fees generated by the “Khamenei Stepping Down as Supreme Leader” market; - Settle positions held before Khamenei’s death at the final pre-death transaction price; - Fully refund opening costs for positions established after his death; - No user will lose money in this market; - Settlements will use the final pre-death transaction price from 1:14 AM ET (time of the initial strike); - For users who bought positions at higher prices today, we will refund the difference to ensure no funds are at risk; - Refund all fees paid by users in this market.