Six Wallets Bet on US-Iran Attack Timing Make Over $1 Million in Profit, Spark Insider Trading Concerns

On March 1, reports emerged that six new wallets on prediction market platform Polymarket had accurately bet on contracts tied to “U.S. military strikes against Iran by the end of February” **before** the U.S. launched such a strike on February 28. The wallets netted roughly $1 million in total profits, sparking concerns about potential insider trading. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps found the six wallets were all newly created in February, with nearly all trades focused on contracts predicting the timing of U.S. military action against Iran. Some positions were opened just hours before the first reports of explosions in Tehran, with buy-in prices as low as around $0.10. Analysts said this concentrated betting ahead of a major geopolitical event mirrors “suspected insider trading” seen in past prediction markets. Data shows that during the escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions, cumulative trading volume for related attack contracts on Polymarket exceeded $529 million. The “February 28 attack” contract alone recorded single-day volume of roughly $90 million, making it the most popular date option. However, reports noted the accounts in question had previously posted losses on other predictions. The U.S. government had also publicly warned weeks earlier about possible military action, so relying solely on trade timing is insufficient to directly prove illegal activity. Notably, U.S. Congressman Ritchie Torres is pushing for the “2026 Financial Forecast Market Public Integrity Act”—legislation aimed at barring government officials with access to non-public information from participating in related prediction market trades. Meanwhile, Polymarket has faced regulatory restrictions or bans in multiple countries in recent years, including the Netherlands, France, Italy, and Singapore.