SemiAnalysis: If AMD’s stock climbs to $600–$700, Meta and OpenAI’s GPU capital costs could fall to zero.
Independent semiconductor and AI research firm SemiAnalysis reported that AMD reached agreements with Meta and OpenAI respectively in late last year and early this year, offering performance-linked warrants to both companies. The warrants will vest based on the procurement and deployment progress of up to 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, and are also subject to AMD’s stock price crossing multiple thresholds, with the highest threshold set at $600. AMD’s stock price has risen from around $200 at the start of 2026 to roughly $500–$600 currently. Assuming the stock price-related warrant vesting follows a roughly linear pattern and the full 6GW capacity is deployed, Meta and OpenAI’s hourly capital cost per GPU will drop from approximately $2.15 and $2.50 respectively to around $1.60 and $1.75. SemiAnalysis noted that if AMD’s stock price rises to the $600–$700 range, the two firms’ GPU-only capital costs could effectively fall to zero. If AMD continues to improve its software stack, secures more large client orders, and drives its stock price above $1,000, the capital cost of entire clusters—including server hardware, networking, and CPUs—could theoretically drop to near zero.
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Castle Securities: The Forces Driving US Stocks to New Highs Remain Solid
Castle Securities said that after a cool-down in speculative trading by retail investors, the forces driving U.S. stocks to record highs this year remain "firmly in place". Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Castle Securities, noted: "The market is shifting from an environment driven by capital flows to one increasingly determined by earnings, corporate demand and macroeconomic fundamentals." According to Castle Securities data, the retreat of retail investors has caused the asset size of leveraged ETFs to drop by 28% to $154 billion. Meanwhile, lower financing costs for stock positions signal easing pressure on Wall Street trading desks and reduced demand for leveraged funds. A string of strong recent earnings results remains supportive of U.S. stocks, as companies have exceeded already elevated market expectations. "Earnings continue to deliver upside surprises, valuations have grown more attractive, and with the end of the earnings blackout period, demand for corporate buybacks is set to accelerate."
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U.S. stocks closed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching a new closing high and the Nasdaq rising more than 2%.
According to market data from BIT (bit.com), U.S. stocks closed on Monday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3% to a new closing high; the S&P 500 gained 1.48%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.1%. In individual stocks, Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) rose nearly 5%, Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) gained around 3%, Meta (META) jumped 6%. SanDisk (SNDK) rose 6%, while SK Hynix (SKHY) fell 0.7%.
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Analysis: After multiple threats and concessions from Trump, Iran’s leadership believes he does not want to escalate the war.
According to a report by U.S. broadcaster CBS, Iran appears to be growing increasingly skeptical of former President Donald Trump’s “carrot and stick” diplomatic strategy. In April this year, Trump warned Tehran it must agree to a ceasefire or “the entire civilization will perish,” but later extended the deadline. He repeated similar tactics in May and June. Internal Iranian sources stated this approach has instead reinforced the country’s leadership’s view that Trump is not seeking to escalate the conflict, but rather bargaining chips in negotiations. They believe Iran can withstand pressure and raise the costs for the U.S. via proxies such as Yemen’s Houthi movement and threats to global shipping, until Washington concludes there is no military solution to the conflict. Tehran’s current assessment is that time is on its side.
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Trump says Strait of Hormuz may reopen at the latest tomorrow, Iran negotiations enter second phase.
US President Donald Trump said that U.S.-Iran talks are advancing rapidly, with both sides discussing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which "could reopen by tomorrow at the latest." Trump noted that the first phase of the talks aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the second phase will focus on Iran's "denuclearization" issue. He stated that if anyone tries to charge fees in the Strait of Hormuz, "the U.S. will collect the fees," emphasizing that Iran will not be allowed to charge fees in the waterway. Trump also said this is Iran's "last chance," adding that the talks are being held at Iran's request, and relevant results could be announced today or tomorrow. Prior to this, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have remained high, and markets are closely monitoring its impact on global energy supplies and oil price trends.
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Michael Saylor: I have never sold any Bitcoin. MicroStrategy's BTC trading is part of the company's capital management activities.
Strategy founder Michael Saylor posted a statement clarifying that his earlier "Never Sell Your Bitcoin" stance was shared with other Bitcoin holders in his capacity as an individual investor. Saylor said he has never sold any Bitcoin, "not even a single satoshi". He emphasized that Strategy is a public company, not a personal wallet, and has publicly disclosed since 2020 that it may buy or sell BTC for capital management purposes. Saylor noted that Strategy and its investors’ long-term conviction in Bitcoin remains unchanged, adding that the company’s related operations are part of its corporate financial strategy, while his personal stance on holding Bitcoin stays consistent. Previously, the market had been monitoring whether Strategy would adjust its Bitcoin holding strategy; Saylor’s latest remarks aim to clearly distinguish between personal Bitcoin holding behavior and public company asset management decisions.
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