On-chain Silver's Largest Long Position Reverses Course After a Week of Losses, Enters Position Today and Catches Silver's Major Surge, Holding 36% Unrealized Gain

February 25th — The forex market hit a turning point Tuesday, with the Australian Dollar (AUD), Norwegian Krone (NOK), and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) leading G10 currencies year-to-date—up roughly 6%, 5%, and 4% respectively. Traders are reassessing the global interest rate trajectory, betting major economies will either wrap up rate-cut cycles or refocus on taming inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicked off a new round of rate hikes this month, and its preferred trimmed-mean inflation gauge rose to 3.4%—reinforcing market bets on another hike in May. Norway’s markets are pricing in a first-half rate hike amid unexpectedly high inflation, while the Kiwi is also benefiting from wagers on upcoming rate increases. The three top “commodity currencies” strengthened in tandem, boosted by gains in key commodities like oil and copper. Strategists note that with Australian rates now above U.S. rates for the first time since 2017, plus a weaker greenback and growing demand for

**2026 State of the Union Address Breaks Record, Surpasses 100 Minutes** The U.S. State of the Union Address on February 25, 2026 officially exceeded 100 minutes, setting a new all-time record. The previous record was held by Bill Clinton’s 2000 address (89 minutes), while Donald Trump’s longest State of the Union clocked in at 82 minutes in 2019. Notably, on the prediction platform Polymarket, an account with an 86% win rate in political wagers had bet $9,000 on the outcome: “The 2026 State of the Union Address will reach or exceed 100 minutes.” Before the result was confirmed, the implied probability of this outcome was just 42%. With the address confirmed to have lasted over 100 minutes, the bet paid off. Account address: 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402

February 25th — On-chain sleuth ZachXBT recently teased an upcoming insider trading investigation report, sparking widespread chatter across the crypto community. Crypto commentator Bold noted that the “most intriguing angle” of the move is that the probe’s target—upon learning they’re under investigation—could theoretically use that information to front-run the market, thereby engaging in new forms of “insider trading.” In response, ZachXBT said that given the multi-party nature of case interviews, information leaks are “likely unavoidable.” Asked why he released the teaser early, he noted front-running wasn’t as significant a concern in the past as it is today, and no prior teaser had gone viral to the tune of 8+ million views and 27,000 likes. This incident once again underscores the tension between transparency in crypto investigations and market maneuvering. With prediction markets growing more active, the timing of information disclosures itself could become a price driver.

**Feb. 25 Key Earnings Watch: Circle (USDC Issuer) & NVIDIA** Markets are closely tracking the impact of two major earnings releases on risk assets: - **Circle** (issuer of USD stablecoin USDC) will publish its financial report **ahead of U.S. stock market opening** on Feb. 25. - **NVIDIA** will release earnings **post-U.S. market close** on Feb. 25 (5 a.m. Feb. 26 Beijing time). NVIDIA’s stock has traded at elevated levels in recent months, with **modest year-to-date gains**. Wall Street is wary: even if results are strong, short-term profit-taking could amplify volatility—potentially hitting the global AI supply chain and associated asset prices. Historically, NVIDIA’s earnings beats have lifted market risk appetite and buoyed sentiment during cryptocurrency pullbacks. Today, investors are weighing interdependencies between: - The AI capital expenditure cycle, - Semiconductor profit outlooks, - Stablecoin business growth. Circle’s and NVIDIA’s reports may offer

February 25: Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced in his 2026-27 budget speech that the city will issue its first batch of fiat-pegged stablecoin issuer licenses in March. The related licensing regime is now in place, and regulators will support licensed issuers in exploring diverse use cases under a compliant, risk-managed framework. The budget speech also confirmed Hong Kong will table a bill this year to create a licensing regime for virtual asset trading platforms and custody service providers—extending regulatory oversight beyond existing exchanges and stablecoins to include over-the-counter (OTC) digital asset trading. Liquidity is a key regulatory priority this year. The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) will implement measures to boost liquidity in Hong Kong’s local crypto asset market, offer additional products to professional investors (including the previously proposed crypto asset margin financing and derivative trading frameworks), and launch an “A

**February 25 Update** Per data from Coinbob Popular Address Monitor (via its Telegram channel: https://t.me/Coinbob_track_CN), the largest long position holder of Hyperliquid’s XPL token (address 0xf47) has been locked in a grueling 137-day “hardcore battle” spanning four months. On the eve of XPL’s sharp October 11, 2025, drop, the address opened a 5x leveraged long position at an average entry price of $0.724—apparently attempting to “bottom-fish” and catch the next XPL rally. But the market crashed immediately after the trade, trapping the address in a long-term hold as a “left-side entry” (entering before a confirmed rebound). Since October 2024, the address has deposited roughly $6.7 million into Hyperliquid, continuously adding margin to average down its cost and keep fueling this contrarian bet. 137 days later, XPL’s price has yet to recover. While its average holding price has fallen to $0.176, the unrealized loss still stands at a staggering $3.46 million—a 507% lo