Entity: Projected to reach $10 billion in annual market revenue by 2030

February 25 U.S. bank Citizens released a report Monday showing the predicted market’s annual revenue has jumped from roughly $2 billion in December to over $3 billion now, with a projected $10 billion by 2030. Analysts note accelerating trading volume growth, a strengthened market structure, and early institutional participation point to a trajectory mirroring the early days of listed derivatives and digital assets. The predicted market has quickly evolved from a niche betting space into a complex ecosystem of trading platforms that aggregate real-world event probabilities. Top players include CFTC-regulated firms Kalshi and Polymarket, which cover politics, sports, and economics—drawing widespread attention from mainstream financial and regulatory bodies. Analysts say asset classes typically progress from retail-driven liquidity to professional market makers, then to institutional capital—and the predicted market is following this path. January trading volume was up 40%+ from December, with February holding a similar growth rate. While sports still drive most liquidity, the market is expanding into macro, political, and regulatory events—areas that align more with institutional demands. The predicted market lets investors hedge discrete event risks—from inflation surprises to merger approvals—without relying on proxy tools like index futures or options, cutting down on basis risk. By focusing on specific outcomes, it offers precise risk transfer mechanisms and real-time, capital-weighted probability signals. Institutional participation is growing via data integration, liquidity provision, settlement standards, and regulatory clarity—with direct trading volumes set to rise as infrastructure matures. Though current revenue comes mostly from trading, bank analysts say data, research, and financing services will drive extra growth as the ecosystem develops.