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Trump Weighs Limited Military Strike Against Iran, Attack Probability Reaches 60% by the End of March

2026.02.20 08:40:10

**FLASH: Trump Weighing Iran Military Strikes Amid Nuclear Deal Pressure** On February 20, people familiar with the matter told *The Wall Street Journal* that former President Donald Trump is considering a preliminary, limited military strike on Iran to pressure Tehran into agreeing to a nuclear accord. If authorized, the strike could be executed within days and target a small number of military or government facilities. Should Iran continue rejecting Trump’s demand to halt uranium enrichment, the U.S. would launch large-scale strikes on regime facilities in Iran — with the ultimate goal of ousting the Tehran government. After weeks of deliberation, it remains unclear how seriously Trump is weighing the plan, though senior aides have presented it to him multiple times. U.S. officials note recent talks have shifted more toward larger-scale strike options, but Trump has not yet decided to order any level of attack. Some U.S. officials and analysts warn such a strike would trigger Iranian retaliation, potentially drawing the U.S. into a wider Middle East conflict and putting regional allies at risk. Separately, Iran told the UN Secretary-General and Security Council members in a letter that “all bases, facilities and assets of hostile forces in the region will be legitimate targets under Iran’s defensive response framework if we are attacked.” Trump’s comments indicate “there is a real risk of military aggression,” while Iran has emphasized it is not seeking escalation or war and will not start a conflict. PolyBeats monitoring shows that on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a U.S. strike on Iran has risen to 26% by the end of February, 52% by March 15, and 60% by the end of March.
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