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Benchmark maintains "Buy" rating on Metaplanet, but target price lowered by over 50%

2026.02.18 09:08:53

Benchmark on Tuesday maintained a “Buy” rating on Metaplanet but slashed its price target by more than half, citing the Tokyo-listed Bitcoin reserve firm’s latest financial report highlighting the “outlook and risks” of its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy. Analyst Mark Palmer cut the price target to 1,100 yen from 2,400 yen, noting recent performance underscores the “hope and danger” of Metaplanet’s Bitcoin-focused financial strategy. The stock trades on the U.S. OTC market under ticker MTPLF, currently around $2.20—after briefly falling to ~$1.85 earlier this month, near its lowest level since the firm launched its Bitcoin purchase strategy in April 2024. Metaplanet reported a $619 million net loss for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, driven primarily by unrealized non-cash valuation losses on its Bitcoin holdings from late-year price declines. Still, operating performance improved sharply: revenue and profit grew thanks to Bitcoin-related financial services. A key pillar of Benchmark’s investment thesis is Metaplanet’s expanding Bitcoin fee-generating business, which earns revenue from Bitcoin options and yield strategies. Analysts say this segment lets the company fund future BTC purchases via operating cash flow (not asset sales) by paying dividends on newly issued perpetual preferred shares—without selling core Bitcoin holdings. The firm added that investor demand for these preferred instruments will likely determine if Metaplanet can keep growing its Bitcoin reserves while managing dilution risk.
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