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This Week's Macro Outlook: Fed Minutes and PCE Data in the Spotlight, Supreme Court May Speak on Trump Tariff Case

2026.02.16 09:00:39

This week (February 16–22), the global market is set for a "data barrage." ### Key Developments: - **Fed & US Economic Data**: The Federal Reserve will publish its January monetary policy meeting minutes at 3:00 AM ET on Thursday—markets are hunting for fresh clues on the 2026 rate-cut path. At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, the initial Q4 US GDP estimate and core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) will take center stage. A hotter-than-expected PCE reading could slow the pace of policy easing this year. - **Central Bank Actions**: Multiple Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release its meeting minutes, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its interest rate decision. Markets widely expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady; the RBA may highlight upside inflation risks. - **Asset Performance**: Gold prices dipped slightly on Monday. In oil markets, reports suggest OPEC+ may resume production hikes in April. The dollar’s trajectory is a key variable—if it avoids a new low or holds relative strength amid an upcoming tariff ruling, it could sway markets. Stronger demand for US Treasuries could spark a fresh round of asset reallocation. - **Critical Events**: The US Supreme Court will issue rulings on February 20, including decisions related to former President Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff policy. An unfavorable ruling or one that significantly impacts the tariffs could weigh on global trade and market sentiment. - **Corporate News**: Earnings season is winding down. Walmart will report its Q4 fiscal year results—markets are focused on e-commerce growth, AI adoption, tariff impacts, and guidance. These factors could move retail stocks and broader market sentiment.
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