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Next Week Outlook: Fed Minutes and PCE Data on Tap, Supreme Court May Speak on Trump Tariff Case

2026.02.15 10:35:47

This week (Feb 15–21) brings a flurry of market-moving global events, data releases, and developments. Here’s a breakdown of key highlights: ### Economic Data & Fed Focus - **Fed Minutes**: The U.S. Federal Reserve will publish its January monetary policy meeting minutes at 3:00 AM ET on Thursday. Investors will scour the document for fresh clues about the 2026 rate-cut path. - **U.S. GDP & PCE**: Friday at 9:30 PM ET delivers the Q4 advance GDP report and core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)—a top market focus. A hotter-than-expected PCE reading could shape the pace of policy easing this year. ### Central Bank Actions - Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release its latest meeting minutes. - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its rate decision: Markets widely expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady, while the RBA may flag upside inflation risks. ### Asset Performance - **Gold**: Spot gold remains volatile, bouncing back to close higher after a sharp intraweek drop. - **Oil**: Crude has pulled back from recent highs amid reports OPEC+ may resume output increases in April. - **U.S. Dollar**: Its movement is a key variable—if it avoids new lows or stays relatively strong ahead of a tariff ruling, it could impact markets. - **Treasuries**: Increased demand for U.S. Treasuries may spark a new round of asset reallocation. ### U.S. Supreme Court Ruling The court will issue rulings on Feb 20, including decisions related to former President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff policy. An unfavorable ruling or one that materially impacts tariff measures could roil global trade and market sentiment. ### Corporate Earnings Walmart will report its Q4 FY results. Investors are watching e-commerce growth, AI applications, tariff impacts, and the company’s guidance—all of which could move retail stocks and broader market sentiment.
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Drift team's associated address deposited 56.25 million DRIFT to a CEX, equivalent to around $2.44 million

On April 4th, per OnchainLens monitoring, a wallet linked to the Drift Protocol team deposited 56.25 million DRIFT tokens (valued at ~$2.44 million) to crypto exchanges Bybit and Gate following a hack.

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Multiple US Military Aircraft Involved in Incidents in Iran and Surrounding Area, Rescue Operation Ongoing

**Breaking: April 4th Updates on US Aircraft Incidents Involving Iran** - A US F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over Iran; two crew members ejected. One has been rescued by US special operations forces inside Iran, while the other remains missing. Iran is conducting search efforts and has asked local civilians for assistance. - Iran claims its air defense systems downed a US A-10 Thunderbolt II near the Strait of Hormuz. US officials confirmed the aircraft crashed, adding the pilot was rescued. - Iranian reports state a US F-16 Fighting Falcon issued an emergency signal and made an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia; the cause is unclear. - A UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter supporting rescue operations was reportedly attacked and damaged. Witnesses saw the helicopter emitting black smoke as it left Iran and entered southern Iraq. Iranian media previously claimed their air defense hit the helicopter. - In response, former President Trump said the US aircraft crashes would not impa

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The US had previously proposed a 48-hour ceasefire, and Iran responded with a "battlefield action."

April 4th — A source with knowledge of the matter stated that on April 1st, the U.S. proposed a 48-hour temporary ceasefire to Iran via a friendly country. Iran’s assessment was that the U.S. made the proposal because it had previously miscalculated Iran’s military strength, leading to major challenges for U.S. forces in the region following an escalation of tensions. The source noted that Iran did not respond to the U.S. ceasefire proposal in writing; instead, it delivered an “on-the-ground response” by continuing heavy firepower strikes on the battlefield. The source revealed that U.S. diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire intensified significantly after an Iranian strike targeted a U.S. equipment depot on Bubiyan Island in Kuwait. (Jinse)

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US-Iran Ceasefire Mediation Stalemate, Iran Unwilling to Meet, Qatar Refuses to Mediate

On April 4, a Wall Street Journal report cited officials and mediators familiar with the matter as saying Qatar has declined to serve as a key mediator in a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal, complicating efforts to find a negotiated path forward. Sources revealed Qatari officials told U.S. counterparts last week the country has no intention of playing a lead mediation role or spearheading related efforts. Earlier Friday local time, mediators said Pakistan-led efforts to broker a U.S.-Iran ceasefire have hit an impasse. They added Iran has formally informed them it is unwilling to meet with U.S. officials in Islamabad in the coming days and rejects U.S. demands as unacceptable. Mediators also noted Turkey and Egypt are still working to find a resolution, considering new meeting locations including Qatar’s capital Doha or Istanbul, and weighing fresh proposals to break the deadlock. Separately, Iranian media outlet Fars News cited sources as saying Iran has rejected a U.S.-propos

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Source: Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year to support labor market

April 4 Oxford Economics Institute stated that U.S. March employment figures significantly overstated the strength of the pre-Iran conflict job market, as the data reflected concurrent declines in both the labor force and household employment. Job growth will slow as the Iran conflict weighs on real economic activity. The conflict’s impact on inflation is immediate, while negative effects on consumer spending, business investment and hiring will become more apparent in the coming months. The institute’s baseline forecast still holds that the Federal Reserve will look past a one-time oil price shock this year and cut interest rates twice to guard against potential future weakness in the labor market.

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US Judge Declines to Reconsider Powell Case Ruling, Appeal, or Delay Walsh Confirmation

On Friday, April 4 (local time), U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia Chief Judge James Boasberg denied the Justice Department’s request to revisit its ruling in the criminal case involving Jerome Powell— a decision that had earlier blocked a subpoena in the probe of the former Fed chair. In his March 13 ruling, Boasberg found the subpoena issued to the Federal Reserve Board in January 2023 was improper: it aimed to pressure Powell to either accede to Donald Trump’s demand for rapid interest rate cuts or resign. The subpoena was issued by Jeanine Pirro, Washington, D.C.’s chief federal prosecutor and a staunch Trump ally, who has vowed to press ahead with the investigation and said her office intends to appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Sources say top DOJ officials back the appeal, which could delay the confirmation of Kevin Wash’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a Senate Banking Committee member, has slammed

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