TD Securities: Shifts Fed Rate Cut Expectation from March to June, Still Expects Three Rate Cuts This Year

**TD Securities Delays Fed Rate Cut Start to June, Still Expects 75bps of Cuts This Year** February 12 – TD Securities has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut of 202X, pushing the timing from March to June, while maintaining its call for a total of 75 basis points (bps) of policy easing this year to lower the target rate to 3%. The firm’s team, led by Chief U.S. Macro Strategist Oscar Munoz, projects 25bps cuts at each of the Fed’s June, September, and December meetings. Crucially, the expected policy easing is not driven by a deteriorating economic outlook, but by inflation gradually moving toward the Fed’s target—allowing monetary policy to “normalize.” Improved employment prospects will also let the Fed refocus on its inflation mandate, the team noted. TD Securities also forecasts U.S. bond yields will keep falling this year, with the 10-year Treasury yield seen ending 202X at 3.75% (up from its prior forecast of 3.5%). Source: FXStreet ### Key Notes on American English Adaptation: 1. **Concise headline**: Leads with core news (delay + total cuts) for scannability (standard in U.S. financial briefs). 2. **Casual yet precise terms**: Uses “pushes/delays” (common in market commentary) instead of overly formal phrasing; “call” (industry jargon for forecast) replaces “expects” for variety. 3. **Logical flow**: Separates core forecasts → drivers → bond yield outlook → source (matches U.S. news structure). 4. **Tone alignment**: Uses “not driven by” (natural for U.S. analysts) instead of “not due to”; “refocus on” (active, conversational) instead of “focus on” (passive). 5. **Clarity for U.S. readers**: Explicitly notes “202X” (placeholder for current year, as original omitted it) and “Treasury yield” (standard U.S. term for government bond yields). All original facts are preserved, with phrasing tailored to U.S. financial news conventions.