Goldman Sachs: NFP Better Than Expected, Friday's CPI If Unexpectedly High Could Turn Fed Hawkish
February 11: Goldman Sachs Asset Management analyst Kay Haigh noted initial signs are emerging of a re-tightening labor market, though full tightening is still some way off. With the economy continuing to outperform, the FOMC will shift its focus to the inflation outlook. We continue to expect the Fed to deliver two more rate cuts this year; a surprise rise in Friday’s CPI data, however, could tilt the central bank toward a hawkish stance. (FXStreet)
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After the US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate release, the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in March decreased to 6%.
February 11: CME’s FedWatch data shows the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in March dropped to 6% (from 21.7% pre-announcement) following the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate figures, with a 94% chance rates will remain unchanged.
Earlier reports noted U.S. January seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls rose by 130,000—well above the market’s 70,000 forecast—marking the largest gain since 2025. The January unemployment rate hit 4.3%, slightly below the expected 4.4% and prior reading of 4.4%.
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The U.S. Labor Market Stabilizes, Providing the Fed with Room to Hold Steady
February 11 — Foreign media analysis of the U.S. January nonfarm payroll report noted that employment growth accelerated last month, with 130,000 jobs added — far exceeding expectations — while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. This signals a stabilizing labor market, which could lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady for now as policymakers monitor inflation. Part of the better-than-expected job growth stems from seasonal sectors like retail and delivery, which hired fewer holiday workers last year.
January typically sees the highest concentration of holiday-related layoffs. Given sluggish seasonal hiring, layoffs were likely smaller than usual, giving a boost to job growth. Even with the January payroll gain, the labor market remains lukewarm, struggling even amid solid economic growth. Anxiety about jobs and high inflation has eroded Americans’ satisfaction with the Trump administration’s economic policies.
Source: FX678
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K33: Bitcoin May Have Bottomed Out, Poised for Consolidation Phase Between $60,000 and $75,000
February 11th — Per The Block, crypto research firm K33 noted that Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 last week could mark a local bottom.
The latest sell-off saw capitulation-like behavior across spot, ETF, and derivatives markets, including extreme readings in trading volume, funding rates, and option skew.
On-chain metrics show Bitcoin’s daily RSI fell to 15.9 — the sixth-lowest level since 2015, trailing only March 2020 and November 2018. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also dropped to 6, its second-lowest reading on record.
K33 expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the $60k-$75k range, with a potential retest of support. However, downside risk below recent lows is limited.
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U.S. January Non-Farm Payrolls Data Far Exceeds Expectations, Signaling Improvement in the Labor Market
February 11
Financial Times (FT) reported on January’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, noting the U.S. economy added 130,000 new jobs—far exceeding market expectations. The figure signals an improvement in the U.S. labor market, following a string of weak prior readings.
U.S. Treasury yields surged as investors pared back expectations for interest rate cuts this year. The two-year Treasury yield—highly sensitive to monetary policy—jumped to 3.55%, hitting a one-week high. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%.
After years of robust growth, U.S. hiring slowed sharply in 2025. A batch of new reports released last week highlighted rising layoffs and falling job openings, suggesting the labor market could deteriorate further. However, the latest NFP data will reinforce Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s claim that the labor market is showing signs of “stabilization.”
(Source: FXStreet)
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