NFP Showdown! White House Officials Intensively "Set the Stage": 50,000 New Additions or Within Normal Range

**February 11** The U.S. January nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report—originally scheduled for last Friday—has been delayed until this Wednesday due to a brief government shutdown of certain agencies. Weakness in prior “secondary” employment indicators has stoked market concerns about slowing job growth. Key data highlights: - January ADP private payrolls were lackluster; - Challenger, Gray & Christmas job cuts surged; - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose; - December JOLTS job openings dropped to a nearly five-year low. Offsetting some pessimism: ISM Manufacturing and Services Employment Indices held relatively steady. Ahead of the NFP release, White House officials are guiding market expectations: - Senior Trade Advisor Peter Navarro said reasonable monthly job growth expectations should see a “significant downward adjustment.” Given current deportations of undocumented immigrants and a shrinking labor force, he noted ~50,000 monthly gains now count as “steady”—no longer tied to the six-figure growth seen during the Biden administration. - National Economic Council (NEC) Director Kevin Hassett added that while job data may show weakness from a labor force decline, this does not conflict with strong GDP growth or rising productivity. “Markets should not panic excessively,” he emphasized. Also notable: the final 2025 annual benchmark revisions for employment data. Preliminary figures showing a downward revision of nearly 1 million jobs briefly roiled markets. As the NFP report nears, the market’s assessment of the Fed’s policy path and the labor market’s true strength faces a critical test.