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As of April 4th, CME’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability the Federal Reserve will hike rates by 25 basis points at its April meeting stands at 0.5%, with the odds of holding rates steady at 99.5%.

April 4: A U.S. judge has denied a rehearing of a ruling involving Fed Chair Powell’s probe. (CNBC)

April 4th — EY-Parthenon Senior Economist Lydia Boussour noted Wednesday that while U.S. March employment data showed a strong rebound, the labor market remains fragile. Against a backdrop of policy uncertainty, businesses are growing more cautious: hiring intentions are cooling, and firms are increasingly prioritizing protecting profit margins by boosting productivity rather than expanding headcount. “Looking ahead, we anticipate the U.S. labor market will be largely frozen in 2026 — marked by selective hiring, muted wage growth, and strategic workforce adjustments amid a historically tight labor supply environment.” Boussour projects job growth will run slightly below the breakeven level, pushing the unemployment rate to gradually rise to around 4.7%. “With the Middle East conflict ongoing, downside risks remain dominant — and there’s a 40% probability of a U.S. economic recession,” she added. (Source: FX678)

On April 4, data from Coinglass shows that as Bitcoin trades within a narrow range, current funding rates across major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchanges indicate a slight easing of bearish sentiment in the market. Specific funding rate details are available in the attached image. **BlockBeats Note**: Funding rates are fees set by crypto exchanges to keep perpetual contract prices aligned with underlying asset values. This mechanism facilitates fund transfers between long and short traders—exchanges do not collect the fee themselves. It adjusts the cost or profit of contract holders to maintain price parity between contracts and their underlying assets. A 0.01% funding rate acts as the baseline: rates above 0.01% signal generally bullish sentiment, while rates below 0.005% indicate a predominantly bearish outlook.

On April 4th, per Coinglass data, total crypto liquidations across the network hit $133 million over the past 24 hours, with $77.83 million in long position liquidations and $54.89 million in short position liquidations.

**April 4th – Federal Reserve official Daly said the U.S. economy no longer needs to generate large numbers of jobs to keep the employment-population ratio steady. In this environment, monthly hiring figures no longer accurately reflect labor market health, and the unemployment rate is a more reliable measure.** **“Ratios and indicators like the employment-population ratio, unemployment rate, quit rate or hiring rate capture changes in workforce size, making them clearer reflections of labor market health,” she stated.** **Source: FX678**