ETH Rebound Surpasses $2100, Market Phase Low Yet to Be Confirmed, Derivative Sentiment Still Bearish

Feb 10: As Bitcoin and U.S. stocks rebounded, Ethereum (ETH) prices climbed above $2,100. Previously, ETH had plunged 43% in 9 days to a low of $1,750, followed by a roughly 22% technical rebound. However, multiple data indicators signal market caution toward ETH’s short-term trend. In the derivatives market, the two-month ETH futures annualized premium is only ~3%—below the 5% neutral threshold—indicating weak trader risk appetite, with bears still in control. Even with the price bounce, derivative sentiment has not improved meaningfully over the past month. From on-chain and fundamental angles, ETH has underperformed the broader crypto market by ~9% year-to-date (YTD), raising questions about fund flows. Still, Ethereum maintains absolute leadership in Total Value Locked (TVL) and fee revenue: its mainnet accounts for 58% of industry TVL, and combined with Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism, that share exceeds 65%. Yet key issues persist. Slowed on-chain activity has ended Ethereum’s deflationary streak, with the ETH annualized supply growth rate rising to 0.8% in the past 30 days—sharply higher than the near-0% level seen a year ago. Meanwhile, concerns over Layer 2 (L2) subsidies and security are mounting. Vitalik Buterin recently noted that focus should shift back to mainnet scalability, acknowledging some current L2 solutions fall short on decentralization and security. Analysis points out that amid increased U.S. job market uncertainty and doubts about AI infrastructure investment sustainability, overall risk appetite remains muted. The stagnant derivatives market reflects investors’ lack of confidence in a sustainable short-term ETH reversal, and confirmation of an interim bottom awaits more time and data.