Market Chill Plus Overvaluation: MetaDAO Sees First ICO Flop Project

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s total demand has been rising steadily over the past 30 days, currently standing at around 170,000 BTC, with spot and futures demand growing in tandem. Although short-term overbought signals have become quite prominent, investors should avoid attempting precise market timing at this juncture. The market appears to have entered a demand-driven rally wave while continuously digesting profit-taking pressure. Historical patterns show that periods of synchronized growth in spot and futures demand often mark Bitcoin’s strongest upward momentum phases. The analyst emphasized that as long as this demand persists and continues to absorb short-term profit-taking, upward momentum could still hold even if the market enters overbought territory. This means the core variable to monitor now is not whether prices are too high, but whether demand is still effectively absorbing selling pressure. Only when demand shows signs of exhaustion and profit-taking begins to outweigh buying support will the rally likely come to an end. Until then, any contrarian trades based on overbought signals may run counter to strong demand-driven momentum.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dropped below $80,000, with its 24-hour gain narrowing to 3.38%.

U.S. long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, and the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of long-term U.S. bond repurchases has had limited effect. Repurchases mainly improve market liquidity but cannot alter the core pricing of long-term interest rates; what truly determines yields are fiscal deficits, inflation, Treasury supply, and global capital allocation. Against the backdrop of sustained U.S. financing needs and AI-related capital expenditures driving long-term funding demand, the term premium demanded by the market is likely to stay high. U.S. debt pressures are also interconnected with global bond markets and energy risks. Japanese long-term bond yields are at high levels; a further rise could increase incentives for Japanese capital to flow back home, exerting additional selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, risks such as those in the Strait of Hormuz, Russian refineries, and Red Sea shipping could push up costs for refined products, insurance, and transportation, increasing global inflation uncertainty. If the U.S. expands secondary sanctions on Iran, it could further drive up energy and trade costs. As such, the Jackson Hole Symposium will serve as a key observation window. Markets should focus more on how Wash views inflation, long-term interest rates, and balance sheet policies, rather than simply waiting for rate cut signals. For the crypto market, U.S. long-term Treasury yields are a key benchmark for dollar funding costs; if yields remain elevated due to fiscal factors, inflation, and global capital competition, they will continue to compress the valuation space of high-volatility assets. In other words, before there is substantial improvement in deficits, inflation, and financing needs, U.S. Treasury repurchases are more a tool to alleviate pressure than a fundamental solution to reverse the long-term interest rate trend.

As investor enthusiasm for AI trading cools and regulators step up measures to curb demand, South Korea’s chip-linked leveraged ETFs have posted nearly $1 billion in outflows this month. So far, leveraged products tracking Samsung Electronics have recorded $381 million in August outflows, while those tracking SK Hynix have seen $601 million—marking the first monthly outflow for these products since their launch in late May. Notably, during the July sell-off in global AI assets, South Korea’s Kospi index suffered a historic 22% plunge in a single month. In response, South Korean regulators raised the minimum margin requirements for new investors buying such products and mandated a five-day simulation trading period for investors.

On-chain analyst Murphy discusses right-side trading strategies after Bitcoin’s breakout above $80,000. Some traders may wonder: if they buy now, what if BTC drops back to $58,000? A 20% pullback could lead to further declines of 30% or even 40% — this is a common "fear of heights" delusion in right-side trading. Right-side buying typically requires setting stop-loss levels in advance, tailored to each trader’s technical indicators, actual position size, and risk tolerance. Murphy states he frequently uses STH-RP (Short-Term Holder Realized Price) as a key reference metric. Historical data shows that once BTC breaks above STH-RP in the latter half of a bear market, a small uptrend is highly likely to emerge. If the price pulls back to test STH-RP and holds above it, the trend is deemed to continue; if it breaks below, the trend is over. Currently, STH-RP stands at around $70,000 (dynamic). If BTC drops back to $70,000, traders should exercise caution; a daily close below this level warrants a stop-loss. In theory, the stop-loss range for right-side position building is roughly around -10%, rather than waiting for a 25% or larger decline to act. Murphy concludes that trading friction is normal and even necessary, as avoiding such friction could cause traders to miss out on major trends.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, among top whales with sharp recent growth in account funds, HYPE’s largest long position holder still leads with an unrealized profit of ~$58.14 million; BIT-associated addresses have fully liquidated their ETH positions, locking in a net profit of ~$31.26 million. BTC OG insider whale (BTC’s largest long position holder): 1,268.3 BTC long positions carry an unrealized profit of ~$5.6 million, but ZEC short positions in the same period show an unrealized loss of ~$13.4 million, bringing total positions to an overall unrealized loss of ~$7.8 million — still unprofitable. BIT-associated whale (ETH’s largest long position holder): 4 related addresses previously held a total long position of ~120,000 ETH, and have now fully liquidated, netting ~$31.26 million after funding fees and transaction fees. HYPE’s largest long position holder: holds 1.38 million HYPE long positions worth ~$112 million, at an average cost of $38.68, with an unrealized profit of ~$58.14 million. Funding fees and other related costs amount to ~$5.1 million. The "819 ETH Insider Whale": bought 20,000 ETH at an average price of $1,936 and has not reduced positions since, with current position value ~$49.97 million and an unrealized profit of ~$11.25 million. ZEC’s largest long position holder: opened positions 39 days ago, holds 20,800 ZEC, with an unrealized profit of ~$6.58 million and a total cumulative profit of ~$8.44 million over the full cycle. Maji: combined unrealized profit from ETH, BTC and HYPE long positions is ~$2.04 million, with a cumulative profit of ~$10.26 million in the past 30 days; however, total cumulative loss over the full cycle remains ~$25.71 million, with a significant rebound recently but still yet to return to profitability.