Bitcoin Dips Reignite "Four-Year Cycle" Fears, Analysis Suggests Unlikely Return to 80% Plunge

Feb 4: K33 analysis noted Bitcoin has pulled back ~40% from its all-time high, echoing downswing phases of past four-year cycles and sparking market fears of a bear market replay. However, the firm believes the current downturn is structurally different from 2018 and 2022, with less chance of an ~80% peak-to-trough decline. K33 research director Vetle Lunde noted that while recent market action echoes historical deep corrections, the current environment boasts stronger institutional participation, inflows into regulated products, a more accommodative rate environment, and no systemic deleveraging event like 2022’s. He added some bottoming signs have emerged—including extreme pressure readings in spot volumes and derivatives markets—but they’re not enough to confirm a clear bottom. Lunde sees ~$74k as a key support level; if it breaks, prices could drop to $69k or even the $58k area near the 200-week moving average. Overall, K33 views the current price band as a potential accumulation zone for long-term investors.