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Polymarket Predicts 78% Probability of "Bitcoin Falling to $65K by 2026"

2026.02.04 11:00:01

As of February 4th, the probability of Bitcoin hitting $65,000 by 2026 on Polymarket has risen to 78%. Meanwhile, the odds are: 55% it falls to $55k, 56% it rises to $100k, and 42% it climbs to $110k.
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Qatar says the US hopes to reach an agreement with Iran.

Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majid Al Ansari said on the 20th that Qatar is in communication with the U.S. and Iran to push for the resumption of U.S.-Iran talks. He added that multiple U.S. government officials have indicated the U.S. aims to reach an agreement and end the conflict. Speaking during the Qatar Economic Forum held in New York, U.S., Ansari stated that over the past weeks, Qatar has been exchanging views with both the U.S. and Iran, and is working to bridge their differences. However, he did not provide a timeline for the resumption of negotiations. "We have heard statements from multiple U.S. government officials confirming that the U.S. wants to reach an agreement and find a solution to end this war," Ansari said. He noted that any solution must ensure regional stability, while also driving the international community to reach a consensus on protecting strategic waterways including the Strait of Hormuz. He pointed out that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also currently affected by regional conflicts. Source: Jin10

9 minutes ago

Gemini’s stock price has dropped approximately 80% from its IPO peak, with its market capitalization falling to $753 million, sparking acquisition rumors.

Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini’s stock price has fallen roughly 80% from its post-IPO peak, bringing its market value to around $753 million and fueling growing acquisition speculation. Gemini’s Q2 platform revenue dropped 38% year-over-year to $12.5 million, spot trading volume fell 66% to $3.8 billion, and the platform’s total assets shrank from $18.2 billion to $8.4 billion. ARK Invest Digital Asset Research Director Lorenzo Valente previously suggested on X that Hyperliquid could acquire Gemini, leveraging its regulatory credentials as a compliant entry point into the U.S. market to expand its perpetual contract and prediction market operations. However, there are no current indications Hyperliquid is pursuing such a deal. Despite Gemini’s ongoing trading business contraction, its entities hold multiple regulatory licenses and approvals, which potential buyers likely value for their hard-to-replicate regulatory infrastructure, custody capabilities, and customer base. In April this year, media reports revealed potential buyers had considered acquiring Gemini’s shuttered European and UK operations, primarily to secure the associated regulatory licenses, though no deal has been finalized to date. Additionally, the Winklevoss brothers collectively hold approximately 94.5% of Gemini’s voting rights, meaning any sale transaction effectively requires their joint approval—this streamlines negotiation counterparties while making shareholder-driven sales or hostile takeovers nearly impossible.

9 minutes ago

Garrett Jin closed out his ZEC short position, incurring a loss of $36.13 million, and still holds 13,300 BTC long positions.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, Garrett Jin, the agent of the so-called "BTC OG Insider Whale", has closed his ZEC short position that he had held for approximately three months, incurring a loss of around $36.13 million. The historical cumulative loss of this account address has reached $12.77 million. Currently, this address holds approximately 1,330 BTC long positions, valued at roughly $107.8 million, with an unrealized profit of about $3.71 million.

9 minutes ago

Maji cuts long positions in ETH and BTC, increases long positions in HYPE, bringing total positions down to $95.16 million.

Per TradingBeats monitoring, crypto personality "Big Brother Ma Ji" Huang Licheng trimmed his long positions in ETH and BTC while adding to his long HYPE positions, bringing his total positions down to $95.16 million. His current positions are as follows: ETH long positions worth ~$67.75 million, with an unrealized profit of ~$1.81 million and an entry price of $2,526.46; BTC long positions of ~$15.02 million, with an unrealized loss of ~$30,000 and an entry price of $80,923.4; HYPE long positions of ~$12.44 million, with an unrealized loss of ~$160,000 and an entry price of $92.64.

9 minutes ago

Wall Street projects that the U.S. will issue around $1 trillion in short-term debt.

According to the Financial Times, as borrowing costs rise, Wall Street expects the United States to issue roughly $1 trillion in short-term debt.

9 minutes ago

Zhipu AI’s latest statement: Its MaaS (Model as a Service) platform will go live with no data retention, meaning input and output data will no longer be stored on disk.

Beating AI Insight News Brief: Zhipu AI’s MaaS (Model as a Service) platform announced it will soon launch a "No Data Retention" feature. After users apply to enable this function, inputs and outputs from calls to general models will no longer be statically stored on the platform, with data only used to complete the current call. However, not all data is exempt from retention: features requiring persistent data such as Batch API and File API are not covered, while requests suspected of violating rules or being abused may also be retained for 30 days or longer. This mechanism is commonly called ZDR (Zero Data Retention), a feature already offered by model platforms including OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Mistral, primarily targeting sensitive data like code and corporate documents that users do not wish to keep on model providers’ servers. Recently, Zhipu’s ZCode sparked controversy for its default upload of users’ repository data. Zhipu has issued a public apology and promised to open-source the project for review. Today, another enterprise sent a letter demanding Zhipu clarify the whereabouts and deletion status of the uploaded data. Zhipu did not state whether the MaaS feature update is related to the ZCode incident.

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